Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Old Dominion at Virginia Tech, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Old Dominion beat Virginia Tech 45–26, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Old Dominion wins 9 of 10.
An off day for Virginia Tech: its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Old Dominion it would win 44% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%. The numbers
Before kickoff Virginia Tech was a 64% favorite.
Final
 Old Dominion Monarchs | 45 |
|---|---|
 Virginia Tech Hokies | 26 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Old Dominion about even · −12 Virginia Tech
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Old Dominion wins 9, Virginia Tech wins 1.
- 1 ODU 56 VT 14
- 2 ODU 63 VT 30
- 3 ODU 45 VT 17
- 4 ODU 55 VT 31
- 5 ODU 55 VT 34
- 6 ODU 35 VT 20
- 7 ODU 45 VT 33
- 8 ODU 38 VT 31
- 9 ODU 52 VT 48
- 10 ODU 37 VT 44
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Virginia Tech
Its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Old Dominion it would win 44% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
31 points apart for Virginia Tech: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Old Dominion offenseEPA per play gained | +0.46 | +0.11 | better by 0.35 |
| Old Dominion defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.22 | +0.07 | better by 0.29 |
| Virginia Tech offenseEPA per play gained | −0.22 | +0.06 | worse by 0.27 |
| Virginia Tech defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.46 | +0.10 | worse by 0.36 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Old Dominion wins 88% of them, Virginia Tech 12%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Old Dominion by 19.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Old Dominion by 17+ | 50.9% |
| Old Dominion by 9–16 | 17.1% |
| Old Dominion by 1–8 | 18.8% |
| Level after regulation | 1.0% |
| Virginia Tech by 1–8 | 7.0% |
| Virginia Tech by 9–16 | 3.6% |
| Virginia Tech by 17+ | 1.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Old Dominion 7 for 64 yards, Virginia Tech 11 for 108 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:18 | Delay of Game on Virginia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ODU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 6:37 | Illegal Use of Hands on Virginia Tech, 6 yards | +1% ODU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 6:25 | Penalty on Virginia Tech, 8 yards | +1% ODU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 14:42 | Face Mask on Virginia Tech, 15 yards | +2% ODU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 6:39 | Penalty on Virginia Tech, 9 yards | +1% ODU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 4:31 | Delay of Game on Old Dominion, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% VT +0.4 pts |
| Q2 2:14 | Penalty on Virginia Tech, 15 yards | 0% ODU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 1:35 | Face Mask on Virginia Tech, 15 yards | +2% ODU +1.9 pts |
| Q2 0:53 | Penalty on Virginia Tech, 15 yards | +1% ODU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 14:48 | Personal Foul on Old Dominion, 14 yards | +1% VT +1.6 pts |
| Q3 9:18 | Holding on Virginia Tech, 10 yards | 0% ODU +1.5 pts |
| Q3 8:26 | False Start on Virginia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ODU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 8:26 | False Start on Virginia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ODU +0.4 pts |
| Q3 7:31 | Holding on Old Dominion, 10 yards | 0% VT +1.8 pts |
| Q4 8:59 | Holding on Old Dominion, 10 yards | 0% VT +1.2 pts |
| Q4 7:02 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Old Dominion, 0 yards | 0% VT 0.0 pts |
| Q4 5:30 | Face Mask on Old Dominion, 15 yards | 0% VT +3.4 pts |
| Q4 2:43 | Holding on Old Dominion, 10 yards | 0% VT +1.8 pts |
When it happened
Virginia Tech’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:44 | Old Dominion was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +4% VT | ODU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 12:18 | Virginia Tech was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedDelay of Game on Virginia Tech, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +4% ODU | VT: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 9:37 | Virginia Tech was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +2% ODU | VT: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 1:03 | Virginia Tech converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +7% ODU | VT: Turnover |
| 5 | Q2 14:52 | Old Dominion converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +4% ODU | ODU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 14:42 | Face Mask on Virginia Tech, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% ODU | ODU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 9:22 | Old Dominion converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +4% ODU | ODU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 1:35 | Old Dominion was stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedFace Mask on Virginia Tech, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% ODU | ODU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Old Dominion 99% · Virginia Tech 1%
- Final margin
- Old Dominion by 19
- Luck in points
- 6.6 for Old Dominion
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Old Dominion by 12.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Old Dominion 88% · Virginia Tech 12% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Old Dominion · 
Virginia Tech
More from Week 3 2025
- Clemson at Georgia Tech GT 24–21 · replay 33% for the winner
- NC State at Wake Forest NCSU 34–24 · replay 40% for the winner
- SMU at Missouri State SMU 28–10 · replay 46% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern GASO 41–34 · replay 56% for the winner
- Boston College at Stanford STAN 30–20 · replay 71% for the winner
- Minnesota at California CAL 27–14 · replay 72% for the winner
- Duke at Tulane TULN 34–27 · replay 75% for the winner
- Iowa State at Arkansas State ISU 24–16 · replay 82% for the winner
- South Alabama at Auburn AUB 31–15 · replay 91% for the winner
- App State at Southern Miss USM 38–22 · replay 92% for the winner
- Pittsburgh at West Virginia WVU 31–24 · replay 92% for the winner
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