Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Louisiana Tech beat New Mexico State 49–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Louisiana Tech wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Louisiana Tech was a 74% favorite.
Final
 New Mexico State Aggies | 14 |
|---|---|
 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 49 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Louisiana Tech about even · −6 New Mexico State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. New Mexico State wins 1, Louisiana Tech wins 9.
- 1 NMSU 30 LT 23
- 2 NMSU 31 LT 34
- 3 NMSU 33 LT 43
- 4 NMSU 27 LT 41
- 5 NMSU 20 LT 38
- 6 NMSU 7 LT 28
- 7 NMSU 21 LT 47
- 8 NMSU 10 LT 41
- 9 NMSU 17 LT 51
- 10 NMSU 10 LT 54
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
New Mexico State wins 6% of them, Louisiana Tech 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Louisiana Tech by 35.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| New Mexico State by 17+ | 1.0% |
| New Mexico State by 9–16 | 1.8% |
| New Mexico State by 1–8 | 3.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| Louisiana Tech by 1–8 | 9.0% |
| Louisiana Tech by 9–16 | 13.6% |
| Louisiana Tech by 17+ | 70.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Hawk, 53 yds missed · 50% expected
- J. Hoyet Chance, 55 yds made · 45% expected
- R. Hawk, 43 yds missed · 67% expected
- J. Hoyet Chance, 27 yds made · 90% expected
- D. Henderson, 49 yds missed · 56% expected
Penalties: New Mexico State 7 for 75 yards, Louisiana Tech 10 for 111 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:31 | Ineligible Downfield on Louisiana Tech, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +4% NMSU +2.5 pts |
| Q1 7:57 | Pass Interference on New Mexico State, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +7% LT +4.5 pts |
| Q1 5:36 | Penalty on Louisiana Tech, 50 yards | +5% NMSU +3.1 pts |
| Q1 5:36 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Louisiana Tech, 0 yards | 0% NMSU 0.0 pts |
| Q1 3:43 | Roughing the Passer on Louisiana Tech, 15 yards | +2% NMSU +1.8 pts |
| Q1 3:43 | False Start on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LT +0.7 pts |
| Q1 1:04 | False Start on Louisiana Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NMSU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 13:51 | Holding on Louisiana Tech, 10 yards | 0% NMSU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 13:51 | Holding on New Mexico State, 10 yards | +1% LT +2.2 pts |
| Q2 1:47 | False Start on Louisiana Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NMSU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 5:40 | Penalty on New Mexico State, 15 yards | +2% LT +1.5 pts |
| Q3 5:40 | Illegal Use of Hands on New Mexico State, 12 yards | +1% LT +1.6 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Holding on Louisiana Tech, 10 yards | +1% NMSU +1.9 pts |
| Q4 11:40 | Penalty on New Mexico State, 13 yards | 0% LT +1.5 pts |
| Q4 11:40 | False Start on Louisiana Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NMSU +0.3 pts |
| Q4 9:34 | Pass Interference on Louisiana Tech, 6 yards | 0% NMSU +1.3 pts |
| Q4 9:06 | False Start on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LT +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Louisiana Tech’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:31 | R. Hawk missed a 53-yard field goalKicks · 50% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before | +3% LT | NMSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 10:31 | Ineligible Downfield on Louisiana Tech, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +4% NMSU | NMSU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 9:50 | J. Hoyet Chance made a 55-yard field goalKicks · 45% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before | +4% LT | LT: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 7:57 | Pass Interference on New Mexico State, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +7% LT | LT: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 5:36 | Penalty on Louisiana Tech, 50 yardsJudgment callsUnsportsmanlike Conduct on Louisiana Tech, 0 yardsJudgment calls | +5% NMSU | NMSU: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q1 1:04 | R. Hawk missed a 43-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for himFalse Start on Louisiana Tech, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +3% LT | NMSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 5:40 | New Mexico State was stopped on 3rd & 233rd & 4th downs · 16% expectedPenalty on New Mexico State, 15 yardsJudgment callsIllegal Use of Hands on New Mexico State, 12 yardsJudgment calls | +4% LT | NMSU: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 12:24 | New Mexico State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedNew Mexico State fumbled and Louisiana Tech recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by Louisiana TechSpecial teams | +5% LT | NMSU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
New Mexico State 0% · Louisiana Tech 100%
- Final margin
- Louisiana Tech by 35
- Luck in points
- 16.2 for Louisiana Tech
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Louisiana Tech by 18.8
- Replay with same day's form
- New Mexico State 6% · Louisiana Tech 94% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
New Mexico State · 
Louisiana Tech
More from Week 3 2025
- Middle Tennessee at Nevada MTSU 14–13 · replay 21% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Florida International FIU 38–28 · replay 31% for the winner
- Liberty at Bowling Green BGSU 23–13 · replay 33% for the winner
- SMU at Missouri State SMU 28–10 · replay 46% for the winner
- UConn at Delaware DEL 44–41 · replay 50% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern GASO 41–34 · replay 56% for the winner
- Merrimack at Kennesaw State KENN 27–13 · replay 88% for the winner
- UTEP at Texas TEX 27–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- Georgia at Tennessee UGA 44–41 · replay 20% for the winner
- Florida at LSU LSU 20–10 · replay 30% for the winner
- Clemson at Georgia Tech GT 24–21 · replay 33% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Notre Dame TA&M 41–40 · replay 37% for the winner