Monmouth at Charlotte, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

Final

Monmouth Hawks	35
Charlotte 49ers	42

September 13, 2025 · Jerry Richardson Stadium · Closing line: Charlotte −3

Replay with same day's form

Luck index +14 Charlotte about even · −14 Monmouth

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Monmouth wins 1, Charlotte wins 9.

1 MONM 45 CLT 38
2 MONM 28 CLT 31
3 MONM 34 CLT 41
4 MONM 24 CLT 34
5 MONM 31 CLT 45
6 MONM 21 CLT 37
7 MONM 10 CLT 31
8 MONM 10 CLT 35
9 MONM 20 CLT 49
10 MONM 17 CLT 56

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

Before kickoff

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

Same teams, fresh game

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Monmouth wins 14% of them, Charlotte 86%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Charlotte by 7.

Actual: Charlotte by 7 494235282114707142128354249 ← Monmouth win by Charlotte win by →

Show as a table

Final margin in the replays	Share of replays
Monmouth by 17+	1.8%
Monmouth by 9–16	4.1%
Monmouth by 1–8	7.6%
Level after regulation	0.8%
Charlotte by 1–8	16.7%
Charlotte by 9–16	19.0%
Charlotte by 17+	50.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Fumble bounces +13% MONM

3rd & 4th downs +11% CLT

Pre-snap flags +2% MONM

All luck +3% MONM

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.9 points to Charlotte: the final margin was Charlotte by 7, without the luck Charlotte by 5.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Monmouth 6 for 65 yards, Charlotte 11 for 112 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

When	Flag	Win probability for
Q1 10:48	Holding on Charlotte, 10 yards	+4% MONM +2.1 pts
Q1 1:43	Ineligible Downfield on Charlotte, 5 yards	+2% MONM +0.9 pts
Q2 12:09	Face Mask on Monmouth, 15 yards	+1% CLT +0.5 pts
Q2 3:42	Face Mask on Monmouth, 15 yards	+4% CLT +1.6 pts
Q2 3:16	Holding on Charlotte, 10 yards, wiping out the play	+12% MONM +4.3 pts
Q2 1:06	Face Mask on Charlotte, 15 yards	+5% MONM +1.6 pts
Q3 14:54	Roughing the Passer on Monmouth, 15 yards	+4% CLT +1.6 pts
Q3 14:54	False Start on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap	+2% MONM +0.9 pts
Q3 10:27	Pass Interference on Charlotte, 15 yards	+5% MONM +1.7 pts
Q3 9:56	False Start on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap	+2% MONM +0.8 pts
Q3 9:06	False Start on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap	+3% MONM +0.8 pts
Q3 7:10	Holding on Monmouth, 10 yards, wiping out the play	+6% CLT +1.9 pts
Q3 4:51	False Start on Monmouth, 5 yards · pre-snap	+2% CLT +0.6 pts
Q4 14:44	Holding on Charlotte, 19 yards	+3% MONM +1.2 pts
Q4 14:33	Holding on Charlotte, 8 yards, wiping out the play	+10% MONM +2.5 pts
Q4 6:16	False Start on Monmouth, 5 yards · pre-snap	+3% CLT +0.6 pts
Q4 0:00	Unnecessary Roughness on Charlotte, 15 yards	+1% MONM +0.6 pts

When it happened

Charlotte’s chance of winning

As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Charlotte 50% Monmouth Q1Q2Q3Q4 12345678

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Charlotte was ahead in it, below while Monmouth was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for	Next drive
1	Q1 6:20	Charlotte fumbled and Monmouth recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50	+9% MONM	CLT: Turnover
2	Q2 3:16	Holding on Charlotte, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls	+12% MONM	MONM: Touchdown
3	Q3 6:10	Monmouth converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 24% expected	+10% MONM	MONM: Turnover on downs
4	Q4 14:33	Holding on Charlotte, 8 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls	+10% MONM	MONM: Touchdown
5	Q4 10:35	Charlotte converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected	+11% CLT	CLT: Touchdown
6	Q4 5:45	Monmouth converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 31% expected	+10% MONM	MONM: Touchdown
7	Q4 3:19	Monmouth converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected	+21% MONM	MONM: Turnover on downs
8	Q4 1:49	Charlotte converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected	+16% CLT	CLT: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Monmouth 20% · Charlotte 80%

Final margin: Charlotte by 7
Luck in points: 1.9 for Charlotte
Luck-adjusted margin: Charlotte by 5.1
Replay with same day's form: Monmouth 14% · Charlotte 86% unchanged: why

How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

3rd & 4th downs 50%Fumble bounces 100%Kicks 100%Judgment calls 0%Pre-snap flags 100%Special teams 0%

What counts Referee calls Momentum after a lucky break none

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

Charlotte fumbled and Monmouth recoveredQ1 6:20
Holding on Charlotte, 10 yards, wiping out the playQ2 3:16
Monmouth converted 3rd & 16Q3 6:10
Holding on Charlotte, 8 yards, wiping out the playQ4 14:33
Charlotte converted 4th & 3Q4 10:35
Monmouth converted 3rd & 11Q4 5:45
Monmouth converted 4th & 4Q4 3:19
Charlotte converted 3rd & 7Q4 1:49

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Monmouth · Charlotte

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