luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025

Washington State at North Texas, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

North Texas beat Washington State 59–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, North Texas wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff North Texas was a 66% favorite.

Final

Washington State Cougars 10
North Texas Mean Green 59

September 13, 2025 · DATCU Stadium · Closing line: North Texas −6.5

Luck index +1 North Texas about even · −1 Washington State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington State wins 0, North Texas wins 10.

  1. 1 WSU 41 UNT 49
  2. 2 WSU 17 UNT 35
  3. 3 WSU 24 UNT 45
  4. 4 WSU 22 UNT 49
  5. 5 WSU 14 UNT 45
  6. 6 WSU 17 UNT 52
  7. 7 WSU 24 UNT 63
  8. 8 WSU 14 UNT 58
  9. 9 WSU 14 UNT 62
  10. 10 WSU 7 UNT 63

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington State wins 1% of them, North Texas 99%. The line is what actually happened: North Texas by 49.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington State by 17+0.0%
Washington State by 9–160.1%
Washington State by 1–80.4%
Level after regulation0.2%
North Texas by 1–82.5%
North Texas by 9–166.8%
North Texas by 17+90.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.2 points to Washington State: the final margin was North Texas by 49, without the luck North Texas by 50.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Stevens, 26 yds made · 91% expected
  • K. Nguma, 26 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Washington State 6 for 54 yards, North Texas 3 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:28 Illegal Block on Washington State, 9 yards +1% UNT +0.6 pts
Q1 0:12 Holding on North Texas, 10 yards +1% WSU +1.3 pts
Q2 14:52 Holding on North Texas, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% WSU +2.3 pts
Q2 9:37 Ineligible Downfield on Washington State, 5 yards +1% UNT +0.6 pts
Q2 7:10 Pass Interference on Washington State, 15 yards +3% UNT +3.0 pts
Q2 4:05 Pass Interference on Washington State, 10 yards +1% UNT +1.3 pts
Q2 2:35 Holding on Washington State, 10 yards 0% UNT +0.8 pts
Q4 5:30 False Start on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNT +0.5 pts
Q4 3:30 Pass Interference on North Texas, 15 yards 0% WSU +1.9 pts

When it happened

North Texas’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while North Texas was ahead in it, below while Washington State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:57 Washington State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +3% WSU WSU: Turnover
2 Q1 5:53 Washington State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +2% WSU WSU: Field goal
3 Q2 14:52 Holding on North Texas, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +3% WSU WSU: Turnover
4 Q2 12:21 Washington State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +4% WSU WSU: Turnover
5 Q2 10:07 Washington State converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +4% WSU WSU: Turnover
6 Q2 8:43 North Texas was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +2% WSU UNT: Punt
7 Q2 8:25 Washington State fumbled and North Texas recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +3% UNT WSU: Punt
8 Q2 7:10 Pass Interference on Washington State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +3% UNT UNT: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington State 0% · North Texas 100%

Final margin
North Texas by 49
Luck in points
1.2 for Washington State
Luck-adjusted margin
North Texas by 50.2
Replay with same day's form
Washington State 1% · North Texas 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Washington State · North Texas

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