Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Oregon State at Texas Tech, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Texas Tech beat Oregon State 45–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas Tech wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Texas Tech was a 94% favorite.
Final
 Oregon State Beavers | 14 |
|---|---|
 Texas Tech Red Raiders | 45 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Texas Tech about even · 0 Oregon State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Oregon State wins 0, Texas Tech wins 10.
- 1 ORST 13 TTU 26
- 2 ORST 9 TTU 30
- 3 ORST 4 TTU 31
- 4 ORST 7 TTU 37
- 5 ORST 0 TTU 34
- 6 ORST 5 TTU 42
- 7 ORST 14 TTU 55
- 8 ORST 6 TTU 52
- 9 ORST 2 TTU 54
- 10 ORST 0 TTU 61
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Oregon State wins 0% of them, Texas Tech 100%. The line is what actually happened: Texas Tech by 31.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Oregon State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Oregon State by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Oregon State by 1–8 | 0.2% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Texas Tech by 1–8 | 0.9% |
| Texas Tech by 9–16 | 2.5% |
| Texas Tech by 17+ | 96.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Ojeda, 47 yds missed · 59% expected
- U. Bellenfant, 21 yds made · 94% expected
Penalties: Oregon State 4 for 23 yards, Texas Tech 10 for 96 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | False Start on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TTU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 13:37 | False Start on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TTU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 3:47 | Personal Foul on Texas Tech, 15 yards | 0% ORST +1.6 pts |
| Q1 1:32 | Holding on Texas Tech, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% ORST +1.8 pts |
| Q1 1:32 | Personal Foul on Texas Tech, 15 yards | 0% ORST +1.5 pts |
| Q2 6:35 | Intentional Grounding on Texas Tech, 16 yards | 0% ORST +1.4 pts |
| Q2 2:19 | Holding on Texas Tech, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% ORST +1.6 pts |
| Q2 0:22 | Delay of Game on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TTU +1.9 pts |
| Q3 11:44 | False Start on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORST +0.3 pts |
| Q3 3:21 | Holding on Oregon State, 8 yards | 0% TTU +0.3 pts |
| Q3 2:15 | False Start on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORST +0.7 pts |
| Q4 3:38 | Holding on Texas Tech, 10 yards | 0% ORST +1.1 pts |
| Q4 2:54 | Offside on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORST +0.7 pts |
| Q4 2:42 | Offside on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORST +1.2 pts |
When it happened
Texas Tech’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 15:00 | False Start on Oregon State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% TTU | TTU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 13:09 | Oregon State was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 18% expected | +0% TTU | ORST: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 10:35 | Texas Tech was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +0% ORST | TTU: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q1 10:29 | Texas Tech was stopped on 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +1% ORST | TTU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 8:59 | Oregon State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +0% TTU | ORST: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 7:09 | Texas Tech converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +0% TTU | TTU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q1 2:02 | C. Ojeda missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before | +0% TTU | ORST: Turnover |
| 8 | Q1 1:32 | Holding on Texas Tech, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsPersonal Foul on Texas Tech, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% ORST | ORST: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Oregon State 0% · Texas Tech 100%
- Final margin
- Texas Tech by 31
- Luck in points
- 5.9 for Texas Tech
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas Tech by 25.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Oregon State 0% · Texas Tech 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Oregon State · 
Texas Tech
More from Week 3 2025
- Colorado at Houston HOU 36–20 · replay 74% for the winner
- Iowa State at Arkansas State ISU 24–16 · replay 82% for the winner
- Kansas State at Arizona ARIZ 23–17 · replay 85% for the winner
- Pittsburgh at West Virginia WVU 31–24 · replay 92% for the winner
- Abilene Christian at TCU TCU 42–21 · replay 93% for the winner
- Texas State at Arizona State ASU 34–15 · replay 98% for the winner
- Utah at Wyoming UTAH 31–6 · replay 98% for the winner
- Washington State at North Texas UNT 59–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Samford at Baylor BAY 42–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Northwestern State at Cincinnati CIN 70–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Georgia at Tennessee UGA 44–41 · replay 20% for the winner
- Middle Tennessee at Nevada MTSU 14–13 · replay 21% for the winner