luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025

Samford at Baylor, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

Baylor beat Samford 42–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Baylor wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Baylor was a 100% favorite.

Final

Samford Bulldogs 7
Baylor Bears 42

September 13, 2025 · McLane Stadium · Closing line: Baylor −51.5

Luck index 0 Baylor about even · 0 Samford

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Samford wins 0, Baylor wins 10.

  1. 1 SAM 13 BAY 26
  2. 2 SAM 10 BAY 30
  3. 3 SAM 20 BAY 45
  4. 4 SAM 14 BAY 44
  5. 5 SAM 0 BAY 34
  6. 6 SAM 6 BAY 44
  7. 7 SAM 6 BAY 48
  8. 8 SAM 7 BAY 54
  9. 9 SAM 3 BAY 56
  10. 10 SAM 7 BAY 69

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Samford wins 0% of them, Baylor 100%. The line is what actually happened: Baylor by 35.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Samford by 17+0.0%
Samford by 9–160.0%
Samford by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Baylor by 1–81.3%
Baylor by 9–162.3%
Baylor by 17+96.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.3 points to Baylor: the final margin was Baylor by 35, without the luck Baylor by 31.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Samford 4 for 40 yards, Baylor 2 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:40 False Start on Samford, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAY +0.8 pts
Q1 12:56 Pass Interference on Samford, 12 yards 0% BAY +2.1 pts
Q2 9:33 Personal Foul on Samford, 15 yards 0% BAY +3.3 pts
Q3 5:30 Holding on Baylor, 10 yards 0% SAM +1.3 pts
Q4 14:26 Holding on Baylor, 10 yards 0% SAM +0.6 pts
Q4 11:52 Roughing the Passer on Samford, 8 yards 0% BAY +0.9 pts

When it happened

Baylor’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Baylor was ahead in it, below while Samford was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:19 Samford was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +0% BAY SAM: Punt
2 Q1 12:56 Pass Interference on Samford, 12 yardsJudgment calls +0% BAY BAY: Touchdown
3 Q2 13:43 Samford fumbled and Baylor recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +0% BAY SAM: Turnover
4 Q2 13:04 Baylor converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +0% BAY BAY: Touchdown
5 Q2 11:37 Baylor was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +0% SAM BAY: Touchdown
6 Q2 11:05 Baylor converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +0% BAY BAY: Touchdown
7 Q2 10:04 Baylor was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +0% SAM BAY: Touchdown
8 Q2 9:33 Personal Foul on Samford, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% BAY BAY: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Samford 0% · Baylor 100%

Final margin
Baylor by 35
Luck in points
3.3 for Baylor
Luck-adjusted margin
Baylor by 31.7
Replay with same day's form
Samford 0% · Baylor 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Samford · Baylor

More from Week 3 2025

Every week 3 game, 2025