luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025

Northwestern State at Cincinnati, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

Cincinnati beat Northwestern State 70–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Cincinnati wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Cincinnati was a 100% favorite.

Final

Northwestern State Demons 0
Cincinnati Bearcats 70

September 13, 2025 · Nippert Stadium · Closing line: Cincinnati −48.5

Luck index 0 Cincinnati about even · 0 Northwestern State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Northwestern State wins 0, Cincinnati wins 10.

  1. 1 NWST 0 CIN 56
  2. 2 NWST 0 CIN 63
  3. 3 NWST 0 CIN 67
  4. 4 NWST 0 CIN 70
  5. 5 NWST 0 CIN 71
  6. 6 NWST 0 CIN 73
  7. 7 NWST 0 CIN 76
  8. 8 NWST 0 CIN 77
  9. 9 NWST 0 CIN 80
  10. 10 NWST 0 CIN 86

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Northwestern State wins 0% of them, Cincinnati 100%. The line is what actually happened: Cincinnati by 70.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Northwestern State by 17+0.0%
Northwestern State by 9–160.0%
Northwestern State by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.0%
Cincinnati by 1–80.8%
Cincinnati by 9–164.0%
Cincinnati by 17+95.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.3 points to Cincinnati: the final margin was Cincinnati by 70, without the luck Cincinnati by 59.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Northwestern State 3 for 25 yards, Cincinnati 5 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:08 Delay of Game on Northwestern State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.7 pts
Q1 13:18 Personal Foul on Northwestern State, 15 yards 0% CIN +0.9 pts
Q1 11:13 False Start on Northwestern State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.7 pts
Q2 6:58 Holding on Cincinnati, 10 yards 0% NWST +0.6 pts
Q2 6:40 False Start on Cincinnati, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NWST +0.4 pts
Q3 2:42 Face Mask on Cincinnati, 15 yards 0% NWST +2.2 pts
Q4 6:31 Holding on Cincinnati, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% NWST +2.1 pts
Q4 1:00 Face Mask on Cincinnati, 15 yards 0% NWST +1.0 pts

When it happened

Cincinnati’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Cincinnati was ahead in it, below while Northwestern State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:18 Personal Foul on Northwestern State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% CIN CIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 9:29 Northwestern State was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +0% CIN NWST: Punt
3 Q2 14:04 Northwestern State was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +0% CIN NWST: Punt
4 Q2 10:11 Cincinnati converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +0% CIN CIN: Touchdown
5 Q2 8:39 Northwestern State was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +0% CIN NWST: Punt
6 Q2 4:10 Northwestern State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +0% CIN NWST: Punt
7 Q2 3:22 Cincinnati was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +0% CIN CIN: Punt
8 Q2 1:53 Northwestern State was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +0% CIN NWST: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Northwestern State 0% · Cincinnati 100%

Final margin
Cincinnati by 70
Luck in points
10.3 for Cincinnati
Luck-adjusted margin
Cincinnati by 59.7
Replay with same day's form
Northwestern State 0% · Cincinnati 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Northwestern State · Cincinnati

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