Pac-12 · 2026 season, in progress
Oregon State Beavers: luck and expected wins
Oregon State is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.8 wins. Luck cost 0.8: the 15th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–0.
2026, game by game
How often Oregon State wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Houston | L 20–33 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 2 | vs Texas Tech | L 24–35 | 73% | −73 |
| Week 3 | vs Montana | W 52–17 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 4 | @ UTEP | W 33–7 | 100% | 0 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Oregon State win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | at Colorado State |  Oregon State by 2.8 | 57% |
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | vs San Diego State | Oregon State by 6.9 | 67% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | vs Washington State | Oregon State by 5.8 | 64% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | at Fresno State |  Fresno State by 2.7 | 43% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | vs Texas State | Oregon State by 2.5 | 56% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | at Boise State |  Boise State by 13.4 | 21% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | vs Utah State | Oregon State by 8.5 | 69% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Oregon State’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | −0.17 | −2.9 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Oregon State takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 10 | vs Washington State | W 10–7 | 27% | +73 |
| 2026 Week 3 | vs Montana | W 52–17 | 99% | +1 |
| 2025 Week 8 | vs Lafayette | W 45–13 | 100% | 0 |
| 2026 Week 4 | @ UTEP | W 33–7 | 100% | 0 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Oregon State would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 11 | vs Sam Houston | L 17–21 | 98% | −98 |
| 2025 Week 6 | @ App State | L 23–27 | 80% | −80 |
| 2026 Week 2 | vs Texas Tech | L 24–35 | 73% | −73 |
| 2025 Week 5 | vs Houston | L 24–27 | 66% | −66 |
| 2025 Week 1 | vs California | L 15–34 | 61% | −61 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2–10 | 4.9 | −2.9 | 1–3 | – |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs California | L 15–34 | 61% | −61 |
| Week 2 | vs Fresno State | L 27–36 | 54% | −54 |
| Week 3 | @ Texas Tech | L 14–45 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 4 | @ Oregon | L 7–41 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 5 | vs Houston | L 24–27 | 66% | −66 |
| Week 6 | @ App State | L 23–27 | 80% | −80 |
| Week 7 | vs Wake Forest | L 14–39 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 8 | vs Lafayette | W 45–13 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 10 | vs Washington State | W 10–7 | 27% | +73 |
| Week 11 | vs Sam Houston | L 17–21 | 98% | −98 |
| Week 12 | @ Tulsa | L 14–31 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 14 | @ Washington State | L 8–32 | 1% | −1 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Pac-12 teams by luck
- Pac-12: Boise State,
Colorado State, Fresno State, 
San Diego State, 
Texas State, 
Utah State, 
Washington State
How many wins does Oregon State have in 2026?
2–2 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 2.8 wins.
Was Oregon State lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Unlucky so far: −0.8 wins of luck, the 15th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Oregon State’s luckiest season?
2026: 2–2 from play worth 2.8 wins, −0.8 of luck. The unluckiest: 2025, 2–10 from play worth 4.9 (−2.9).