College football · Week 6 2026 · Saturday, October 10
San Diego State vs Oregon State prediction and pick
Our San Diego State Aztecs at Oregon State Beavers pick: Oregon State by 6.9, 67% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 2 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±16.2, so about 55% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ours: Oregon State by 6.9San Diego State win 33%Oregon State win 67%5649423528211470714212835424956← San Diego State win byOregon State win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
San Diego State win
33.4%
Oregon State win
66.6%
Middle 50%: San Diego State by 4 to Oregon State by 18
50%
Middle 90%: San Diego State by 20 to Oregon State by 34
90%
Middle 95%: San Diego State by 25 to Oregon State by 39
95%
Exactly Oregon State by 3
6.7%
Exactly San Diego State by 3
5.7%
Exactly Oregon State by 7
5.5%
Exactly Oregon State by 14
4.0%
Exactly San Diego State by 7
3.9%
P50
Half of games like this end between San Diego State by 4 and Oregon State by 18.
P90
9 in 10 between San Diego State by 20 and Oregon State by 34.
P95
19 in 20 between San Diego State by 25 and Oregon State by 39.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
San Diego State vs Oregon State: questions and answers
Who will win San Diego State vs Oregon State?
Our forecast picks Oregon State, with 67% to win; San Diego State win 33% of the time.
What’s the spread for San Diego State vs Oregon State?
Our spread: Oregon State −6.9. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is San Diego State vs Oregon State?
Saturday, October 10, 2026, at 6:00 pm ET, at Reser Stadium.
San Diego State at 
Oregon State
