College football · Week 6 2026 · Thursday, October 8
South Alabama vs Arkansas State prediction and pick
Our South Alabama Jaguars at Arkansas State Red Wolves pick: Arkansas State by 1.3, 53% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 2 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±16.2, so about 55% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ours: Arkansas State by 1.3South Alabama win 47%Arkansas State win 53%494235282114707142128354249← South Alabama win byArkansas State win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
South Alabama win
46.8%
Arkansas State win
53.2%
Middle 50%: South Alabama by 10 to Arkansas State by 13
50%
Middle 90%: South Alabama by 25 to Arkansas State by 28
90%
Middle 95%: South Alabama by 31 to Arkansas State by 33
95%
Exactly Arkansas State by 3
6.9%
Exactly South Alabama by 3
6.7%
Exactly Arkansas State by 7
5.2%
Exactly South Alabama by 7
4.9%
Exactly Arkansas State by 14
3.2%
P50
Half of games like this end between South Alabama by 10 and Arkansas State by 13.
P90
9 in 10 between South Alabama by 25 and Arkansas State by 28.
P95
19 in 20 between South Alabama by 31 and Arkansas State by 33.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
South Alabama vs Arkansas State: questions and answers
Who will win South Alabama vs Arkansas State?
Our forecast picks Arkansas State, with 53% to win; South Alabama win 47% of the time.
What’s the spread for South Alabama vs Arkansas State?
Our spread: Arkansas State −1.3. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is South Alabama vs Arkansas State?
Thursday, October 8, 2026, at 7:30 pm ET, at Centennial Bank Stadium.
South Alabama at 
Arkansas State
