Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025
Wake Forest at Oregon State, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
Wake Forest beat Oregon State 39–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Wake Forest wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Wake Forest was a 54% favorite.
Final
 Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 39 |
|---|---|
 Oregon State Beavers | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Wake Forest about even · 0 Oregon State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Wake Forest wins 10, Oregon State wins 0.
- 1 WAKE 65 ORST 7
- 2 WAKE 58 ORST 7
- 3 WAKE 47 ORST 0
- 4 WAKE 47 ORST 3
- 5 WAKE 53 ORST 13
- 6 WAKE 42 ORST 6
- 7 WAKE 42 ORST 9
- 8 WAKE 28 ORST 0
- 9 WAKE 35 ORST 13
- 10 WAKE 21 ORST 9
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Wake Forest wins 100% of them, Oregon State 0%. The line is what actually happened: Wake Forest by 25.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Wake Forest by 17+ | 95.5% |
| Wake Forest by 9–16 | 3.3% |
| Wake Forest by 1–8 | 1.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Oregon State by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Oregon State by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Oregon State by 17+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Ojeda, 47 yds blocked · 58% expected
- C. Calvert, 43 yds made · 65% expected
Penalties: Wake Forest 12 for 109 yards, Oregon State 9 for 70 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:17 | Roughing the Passer on Oregon State, 15 yards | +3% WAKE +1.5 pts |
| Q1 8:00 | Roughing the Passer on Wake Forest, 15 yards | +6% ORST +3.3 pts |
| Q1 5:39 | False Start on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WAKE +0.5 pts |
| Q1 4:38 | Holding on Wake Forest, 10 yards | +1% ORST +0.6 pts |
| Q2 12:51 | False Start on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WAKE +0.7 pts |
| Q2 12:35 | Holding on Wake Forest, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% ORST +1.4 pts |
| Q2 11:33 | Pass Interference on Oregon State, 15 yards | +2% WAKE +2.2 pts |
| Q2 6:15 | False Start on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WAKE +0.7 pts |
| Q2 5:53 | False Start on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WAKE +0.5 pts |
| Q2 3:44 | False Start on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORST +0.5 pts |
| Q3 13:46 | Holding on Oregon State, 10 yards | +1% WAKE +1.7 pts |
| Q3 13:32 | False Start on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WAKE +0.6 pts |
| Q3 10:00 | False Start on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORST +1.1 pts |
| Q3 3:39 | Face Mask on Wake Forest, 15 yards | 0% ORST +1.0 pts |
| Q3 1:04 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Wake Forest, 9 yards | 0% ORST +1.8 pts |
| Q4 11:36 | Pass Interference on Wake Forest, 15 yards | 0% ORST +1.3 pts |
| Q4 10:09 | False Start on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WAKE +0.7 pts |
| Q4 9:47 | Roughing the Passer on Wake Forest, 15 yards | 0% ORST +3.3 pts |
| Q4 5:36 | Offside on Wake Forest, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORST 0.0 pts |
| Q4 5:35 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Wake Forest, 0 yards | 0% ORST +3.0 pts |
| Q4 1:18 | Holding on Wake Forest, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% ORST +5.0 pts |
When it happened
Oregon State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:17 | Roughing the Passer on Oregon State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% WAKE | WAKE: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 12:19 | Oregon State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +3% WAKE | ORST: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 9:22 | Wake Forest was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 82% expected | +3% ORST | WAKE: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q1 8:48 | Wake Forest was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 81% expected | +5% ORST | WAKE: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 8:00 | Roughing the Passer on Wake Forest, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% ORST | ORST: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q1 4:38 | C. Ojeda had a 47-yard field goal blockedKicks · 58% expected for him, 1 of 2 from 45+ beforeHolding on Wake Forest, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +6% WAKE | ORST: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 12:46 | Oregon State fumbled and Wake Forest recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% WAKE | ORST: Turnover |
| 8 | Q2 11:33 | Pass Interference on Oregon State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% WAKE | WAKE: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Wake Forest 100% · Oregon State 0%
- Final margin
- Wake Forest by 25
- Luck in points
- 1.9 for Wake Forest
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Wake Forest by 23.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Wake Forest 100% · Oregon State 0% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
Wake Forest · 
Oregon State
More from Week 7 2025
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- UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina CCU 23–8 · replay 31% for the winner