Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025
Pittsburgh at Florida State, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
Pittsburgh beat Florida State 34–31, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
An off day for Florida State: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Pittsburgh it would win 69% of the time; with this day’s form, 34%. The numbers
Before kickoff Florida State was a 75% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:25 left): Florida State fumbled and Pittsburgh recovered, worth 10 points of win probability to Pittsburgh.
Final
 Pittsburgh Panthers | 34 |
|---|---|
 Florida State Seminoles | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +34 Pittsburgh lucky · −34 Florida State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Pittsburgh wins 7, Florida State wins 3.
- 1 PITT 48 FSU 10
- 2 PITT 48 FSU 21
- 3 PITT 42 FSU 21
- 4 PITT 38 FSU 21
- 5 PITT 38 FSU 27
- 6 PITT 23 FSU 16
- 7 PITT 27 FSU 24
- 8 PITT 17 FSU 20
- 9 PITT 21 FSU 30
- 10 PITT 16 FSU 35
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Florida State
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Pittsburgh it would win 69% of the time; with this day’s form, 34%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
35 points apart for Florida State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh offenseEPA per play gained | +0.34 | +0.05 | better by 0.29 |
| Pittsburgh defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.16 | +0.03 | worse by 0.13 |
| Florida State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.16 | +0.06 | better by 0.10 |
| Florida State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.34 | +0.11 | worse by 0.23 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Pittsburgh wins 66% of them, Florida State 34%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Pittsburgh by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Pittsburgh by 17+ | 30.0% |
| Pittsburgh by 9–16 | 16.4% |
| Pittsburgh by 1–8 | 18.2% |
| Level after regulation | 4.9% |
| Florida State by 1–8 | 15.2% |
| Florida State by 9–16 | 8.4% |
| Florida State by 17+ | 6.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Weinberg, 34 yds made · 82% expected
- T. Butkowski, 28 yds made · 90% expected
- T. Butkowski, 34 yds made · 83% expected
Penalties: Pittsburgh 4 for 58 yards, Florida State 8 for 72 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:55 | Illegal Snap on Florida State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PITT +0.8 pts |
| Q1 5:48 | Pass Interference on Pittsburgh, 15 yards | +5% FSU +2.5 pts |
| Q2 2:51 | Personal Foul on Florida State, 9 yards | +2% PITT +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:00 | Holding on Pittsburgh, 10 yards | 0% FSU +0.1 pts |
| Q2 0:00 | Face Mask on Florida State, 15 yards | +2% PITT 0.0 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Unnecessary Roughness on Pittsburgh, 15 yards | +4% FSU +4.1 pts |
| Q3 11:25 | Face Mask on Florida State, 13 yards | +2% PITT +0.8 pts |
| Q3 7:15 | Holding on Florida State, 10 yards | +2% PITT +0.7 pts |
| Q3 3:59 | Intentional Grounding on Pittsburgh, 18 yards | +9% FSU +3.0 pts |
| Q4 13:51 | Holding on Florida State, 10 yards | +3% PITT +1.3 pts |
| Q4 6:25 | Delay of Game on Florida State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PITT +0.3 pts |
| Q4 0:56 | Offside on Florida State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PITT +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Florida State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 89%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 1:29 | Pittsburgh converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +6% PITT | PITT: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 4:33 | Florida State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +5% FSU | FSU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 10:15 | Pittsburgh converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +7% PITT | PITT: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 3:59 | Intentional Grounding on Pittsburgh, 18 yardsJudgment calls | +9% FSU | FSU: Turnover |
| 5 | Q4 13:25 | Florida State fumbled and Pittsburgh recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% PITT | FSU: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 6:25 | Florida State was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedDelay of Game on Florida State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +8% PITT | FSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 3:46 | Pittsburgh fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% PITT | PITT: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 1:45 | Florida State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +7% FSU | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Pittsburgh 35% · Florida State 65%
- Final margin
- Pittsburgh by 3
- Luck in points
- 5.4 for Pittsburgh
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Florida State by 2.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Pittsburgh 66% · Florida State 34% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
Pittsburgh · 
Florida State
More from Week 7 2025
- Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech GT 35–20 · replay 77% for the winner
- Stanford at SMU SMU 34–10 · replay 92% for the winner
- NC State at Notre Dame ND 36–7 · replay 96% for the winner
- Clemson at Boston College CLEM 41–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Oregon State WAKE 39–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Navy at Temple NAVY 32–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Northwestern at Penn State NU 22–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Toledo at Bowling Green BGSU 28–23 · replay 21% for the winner
- Purdue at Minnesota MINN 27–20 · replay 25% for the winner
- Alabama at Missouri ALA 27–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina CCU 23–8 · replay 31% for the winner
- TCU at Kansas State KSU 41–28 · replay 31% for the winner