Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025
Stanford at SMU, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
SMU beat Stanford 34–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, SMU wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff SMU was a 90% favorite.
Final
 Stanford Cardinal | 10 |
|---|---|
 SMU Mustangs | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 SMU about even · −8 Stanford
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Stanford wins 1, SMU wins 9.
- 1 STAN 21 SMU 14
- 2 STAN 9 SMU 12
- 3 STAN 17 SMU 24
- 4 STAN 28 SMU 40
- 5 STAN 16 SMU 30
- 6 STAN 10 SMU 28
- 7 STAN 14 SMU 35
- 8 STAN 14 SMU 38
- 9 STAN 7 SMU 37
- 10 STAN 7 SMU 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Stanford wins 8% of them, SMU 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: SMU by 24.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Stanford by 17+ | 0.4% |
| Stanford by 9–16 | 1.6% |
| Stanford by 1–8 | 5.9% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| SMU by 1–8 | 11.0% |
| SMU by 9–16 | 19.9% |
| SMU by 17+ | 60.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Keltner, 32 yds made · 82% expected
- E. Kenney, 34 yds made · 83% expected
- S. Keltner, 48 yds made · 56% expected
Penalties: Stanford 10 for 130 yards, SMU 6 for 43 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:27 | Holding on SMU, 10 yards | +2% STAN +2.3 pts |
| Q1 6:10 | Holding on SMU, 10 yards | +1% STAN +0.6 pts |
| Q1 2:25 | Holding on Stanford, 10 yards | 0% SMU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 2:00 | Holding on Stanford, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% SMU +2.2 pts |
| Q2 6:17 | Offside on SMU, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% STAN +0.8 pts |
| Q2 1:35 | Illegal Block on SMU, 10 yards | 0% STAN +0.4 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Holding on Stanford, 10 yards | +1% SMU +1.7 pts |
| Q3 6:58 | False Start on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SMU +0.2 pts |
| Q4 10:14 | Illegal Substitution on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SMU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 9:43 | False Start on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SMU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 8:45 | Pass Interference on SMU, 4 yards | +1% STAN +1.8 pts |
| Q4 8:41 | False Start on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SMU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 6:55 | Personal Foul on Stanford, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +2% SMU +4.0 pts |
| Q4 6:23 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on SMU, 4 yards | +1% SMU +5.9 pts |
| Q4 6:05 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Stanford, 15 yards | +2% STAN +7.9 pts |
| Q4 4:44 | Personal Foul on Stanford, 50 yards | 0% SMU +3.8 pts |
When it happened
SMU’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:27 | Holding on SMU, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +2% STAN | STAN: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 5:14 | SMU converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +3% SMU | SMU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 2:46 | SMU was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +2% STAN | SMU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 2:39 | SMU converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +2% SMU | SMU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 4:28 | Stanford converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expectedStanford fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +2% STAN | STAN: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q2 2:48 | Stanford was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected | +2% SMU | STAN: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q2 2:44 | Stanford was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +3% SMU | STAN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 6:55 | Personal Foul on Stanford, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +2% SMU | SMU: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Stanford 0% · SMU 100%
- Final margin
- SMU by 24
- Luck in points
- 1.4 for Stanford
- Luck-adjusted margin
- SMU by 25.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Stanford 8% · SMU 92% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
Stanford · 
SMU
More from Week 7 2025
- Pittsburgh at Florida State PITT 34–31 · replay 66% for the winner
- Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech GT 35–20 · replay 77% for the winner
- NC State at Notre Dame ND 36–7 · replay 96% for the winner
- Clemson at Boston College CLEM 41–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Oregon State WAKE 39–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Navy at Temple NAVY 32–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Northwestern at Penn State NU 22–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Toledo at Bowling Green BGSU 28–23 · replay 21% for the winner
- Purdue at Minnesota MINN 27–20 · replay 25% for the winner
- Alabama at Missouri ALA 27–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina CCU 23–8 · replay 31% for the winner
- TCU at Kansas State KSU 41–28 · replay 31% for the winner