Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
Georgia Tech beat Virginia Tech 35–20, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Georgia Tech was an 82% favorite.
Final
 Virginia Tech Hokies | 20 |
|---|---|
 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +23 Georgia Tech about even · −23 Virginia Tech
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Virginia Tech wins 2, Georgia Tech wins 8.
- 1 VT 37 GT 21
- 2 VT 35 GT 31
- 3 VT 30 GT 31
- 4 VT 30 GT 34
- 5 VT 34 GT 42
- 6 VT 31 GT 43
- 7 VT 28 GT 44
- 8 VT 20 GT 40
- 9 VT 31 GT 55
- 10 VT 17 GT 48
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Virginia Tech wins 23% of them, Georgia Tech 77%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Georgia Tech by 15.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Virginia Tech by 17+ | 3.6% |
| Virginia Tech by 9–16 | 6.5% |
| Virginia Tech by 1–8 | 11.1% |
| Level after regulation | 2.3% |
| Georgia Tech by 1–8 | 23.2% |
| Georgia Tech by 9–16 | 17.1% |
| Georgia Tech by 17+ | 36.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- A. Birr, 25 yds made · 94% expected
- A. Birr, 30 yds made · 90% expected
- A. Birr, 51 yds blocked · 55% expected
Penalties: Virginia Tech 9 for 70 yards, Georgia Tech 6 for 70 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:29 | Personal Foul on Virginia Tech, 15 yards | +1% GT +1.0 pts |
| Q1 8:28 | False Start on Virginia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GT +0.6 pts |
| Q1 3:46 | Pass Interference on Georgia Tech, 15 yards | +2% VT +3.3 pts |
| Q1 1:17 | Holding on Virginia Tech, 10 yards | +1% GT +1.8 pts |
| Q2 8:25 | Pass Interference on Georgia Tech, 15 yards | 0% VT +1.1 pts |
| Q2 0:17 | Offside on Virginia Tech, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% GT 0.0 pts |
| Q2 0:07 | Holding on Georgia Tech, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% VT +4.5 pts |
| Q3 4:45 | Roughing the Passer on Virginia Tech, 15 yards | +1% GT +1.6 pts |
| Q3 4:31 | Holding on Georgia Tech, 10 yards | 0% VT +1.0 pts |
| Q3 3:29 | False Start on Virginia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% GT +0.8 pts |
| Q4 13:44 | False Start on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% VT +0.5 pts |
| Q4 11:13 | Holding on Virginia Tech, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% GT +2.6 pts |
| Q4 10:05 | Holding on Virginia Tech, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% GT +1.7 pts |
| Q4 4:49 | Personal Foul on Georgia Tech, 15 yards | 0% VT +0.9 pts |
| Q4 3:05 | Intentional Grounding on Virginia Tech, 0 yards | 0% GT +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Georgia Tech’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:29 | Georgia Tech converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expectedPersonal Foul on Virginia Tech, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% GT | GT: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 10:53 | Georgia Tech’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +1% GT | GT: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 4:34 | Georgia Tech converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +2% GT | GT: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 3:46 | Pass Interference on Georgia Tech, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% VT | VT: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 1:17 | Holding on Virginia Tech, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +1% GT | GT: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 0:07 | Holding on Georgia Tech, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +3% VT | VT: End of half |
| 7 | Q3 11:40 | Virginia Tech was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +1% GT | VT: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 11:34 | Virginia Tech converted 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +3% VT | VT: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Virginia Tech 1% · Georgia Tech 99%
- Final margin
- Georgia Tech by 15
- Luck in points
- 1.8 for Georgia Tech
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Georgia Tech by 13.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Virginia Tech 23% · Georgia Tech 77% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
Virginia Tech · 
Georgia Tech
More from Week 7 2025
- Pittsburgh at Florida State PITT 34–31 · replay 66% for the winner
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- Wake Forest at Oregon State WAKE 39–14 · replay 100% for the winner
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- Northwestern at Penn State NU 22–21 · replay 19% for the winner
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- Purdue at Minnesota MINN 27–20 · replay 25% for the winner
- Alabama at Missouri ALA 27–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina CCU 23–8 · replay 31% for the winner
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