luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025

Clemson at Boston College, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?

Clemson beat Boston College 41–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Clemson wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Clemson was an 82% favorite.

Final

Clemson Tigers 41
Boston College Eagles 10

October 11, 2025 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA) · Closing line: Clemson −14

Luck index +1 Clemson about even · −1 Boston College

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Clemson wins 10, Boston College wins 0.

  1. 1 CLEM 55 BC 10
  2. 2 CLEM 56 BC 17
  3. 3 CLEM 45 BC 10
  4. 4 CLEM 37 BC 6
  5. 5 CLEM 38 BC 10
  6. 6 CLEM 35 BC 10
  7. 7 CLEM 38 BC 17
  8. 8 CLEM 26 BC 7
  9. 9 CLEM 42 BC 28
  10. 10 CLEM 21 BC 13

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Clemson wins 99% of them, Boston College 1%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Clemson by 31.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Clemson by 17+84.0%
Clemson by 9–1610.1%
Clemson by 1–84.5%
Level after regulation0.6%
Boston College by 1–80.7%
Boston College by 9–160.1%
Boston College by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.9 points to Clemson: the final margin was Clemson by 31, without the luck Clemson by 24.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • N. Hauser, 46 yds made · 60% expected
  • L. Lombardo, 45 yds made · 65% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Clemson 2 for 18 yards, Boston College 3 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:02 Pass Interference on Clemson, 12 yards +1% BC +1.5 pts
Q2 9:19 Roughing the Passer on Clemson, 6 yards +1% BC +1.1 pts
Q2 9:09 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Boston College, 15 yards 0% CLEM +0.9 pts
Q3 14:57 Holding on Boston College, 10 yards 0% CLEM +0.6 pts
Q4 3:48 Offside on Boston College, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% CLEM +0.7 pts

When it happened

Boston College’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Boston College was ahead in it, below while Clemson was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:52 Clemson was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +2% BC CLEM: Field goal
2 Q1 11:08 Clemson converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected +1% CLEM CLEM: Field goal
3 Q1 9:16 Clemson was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected +3% BC CLEM: Field goal
4 Q1 8:24 N. Hauser made a 46-yard field goalKicks · 60% expected for him, 2 of 6 from 45+ before +2% CLEM CLEM: Touchdown
5 Q1 3:02 Pass Interference on Clemson, 12 yardsJudgment calls +1% BC BC: Field goal
6 Q2 9:19 Roughing the Passer on Clemson, 6 yardsJudgment calls +1% BC BC: Touchdown
7 Q2 6:32 Clemson converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +2% CLEM CLEM: Touchdown
8 Q2 2:38 Boston College converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +1% BC BC: Turnover

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Clemson 100% · Boston College 0%

Final margin
Clemson by 31
Luck in points
6.9 for Clemson
Luck-adjusted margin
Clemson by 24.1
Replay with same day's form
Clemson 99% · Boston College 1% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · Clemson · Boston College

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