Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025
NC State at Notre Dame, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
Notre Dame beat NC State 36–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Notre Dame wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Notre Dame was a 94% favorite.
Final
 NC State Wolfpack | 7 |
|---|---|
 Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 36 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Notre Dame about even · −4 NC State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. NC State wins 0, Notre Dame wins 10.
- 1 NCSU 20 ND 24
- 2 NCSU 13 ND 22
- 3 NCSU 10 ND 23
- 4 NCSU 14 ND 30
- 5 NCSU 14 ND 34
- 6 NCSU 14 ND 38
- 7 NCSU 17 ND 44
- 8 NCSU 14 ND 45
- 9 NCSU 0 ND 37
- 10 NCSU 13 ND 60
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
NC State wins 4% of them, Notre Dame 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Notre Dame by 29.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| NC State by 17+ | 0.2% |
| NC State by 9–16 | 0.8% |
| NC State by 1–8 | 2.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.0% |
| Notre Dame by 1–8 | 8.0% |
| Notre Dame by 9–16 | 12.1% |
| Notre Dame by 17+ | 75.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. Burnette, 48 yds made · 58% expected
- N. Burnette, 34 yds made · 83% expected
Penalties: NC State 5 for 60 yards, Notre Dame 6 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:49 | False Start on Notre Dame, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NCSU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 13:08 | Holding on Notre Dame, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% NCSU +2.3 pts |
| Q2 8:56 | Holding on NC State, 10 yards | +2% ND +1.5 pts |
| Q2 7:15 | False Start on Notre Dame, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NCSU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 0:18 | Pass Interference on NC State, 15 yards | 0% ND +0.4 pts |
| Q3 12:09 | Pass Interference on NC State, 15 yards | +2% ND +1.8 pts |
| Q3 10:57 | False Start on Notre Dame, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NCSU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 9:11 | Pass Interference on NC State, 15 yards | +1% ND +0.8 pts |
| Q4 9:01 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Notre Dame, 15 yards | 0% ND +1.3 pts |
| Q4 5:05 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Notre Dame, 15 yards | 0% NCSU +1.0 pts |
| Q4 1:24 | False Start on NC State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ND +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Notre Dame’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 13:08 | Holding on Notre Dame, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +2% NCSU | NCSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 11:07 | NC State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +3% NCSU | NCSU: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 8:56 | Holding on NC State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +2% ND | ND: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 14:16 | Notre Dame was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +2% NCSU | ND: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 13:01 | NC State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +1% ND | NCSU: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 12:09 | Pass Interference on NC State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% ND | ND: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 9:59 | Notre Dame converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +2% ND | ND: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 6:58 | Notre Dame converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +2% ND | ND: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
NC State 0% · Notre Dame 100%
- Final margin
- Notre Dame by 29
- Luck in points
- 2.3 for NC State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Notre Dame by 31.3
- Replay with same day's form
- NC State 4% · Notre Dame 96% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
NC State · 
Notre Dame
More from Week 7 2025
- Pittsburgh at Florida State PITT 34–31 · replay 66% for the winner
- Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech GT 35–20 · replay 77% for the winner
- Stanford at SMU SMU 34–10 · replay 92% for the winner
- Clemson at Boston College CLEM 41–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Oregon State WAKE 39–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Navy at Temple NAVY 32–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Northwestern at Penn State NU 22–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Toledo at Bowling Green BGSU 28–23 · replay 21% for the winner
- Purdue at Minnesota MINN 27–20 · replay 25% for the winner
- Alabama at Missouri ALA 27–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina CCU 23–8 · replay 31% for the winner
- TCU at Kansas State KSU 41–28 · replay 31% for the winner