College football · Week 7 2026 · Saturday, October 17
Washington State vs Oregon State prediction and pick
Our Washington State Cougars at Oregon State Beavers pick: Oregon State by 5.8, 64% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 3 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±16.4, so about 54% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ours: Oregon State by 5.8Washington State win 36%Oregon State win 64%5649423528211470714212835424956← Washington State win byOregon State win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Washington State win
36.0%
Oregon State win
64.0%
Middle 50%: Washington State by 6 to Oregon State by 17
50%
Middle 90%: Washington State by 21 to Oregon State by 33
90%
Middle 95%: Washington State by 27 to Oregon State by 38
95%
Exactly Oregon State by 3
6.7%
Exactly Washington State by 3
5.9%
Exactly Oregon State by 7
5.5%
Exactly Washington State by 7
4.0%
Exactly Oregon State by 14
3.8%
P50
Half of games like this end between Washington State by 6 and Oregon State by 17.
P90
9 in 10 between Washington State by 21 and Oregon State by 33.
P95
19 in 20 between Washington State by 27 and Oregon State by 38.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Washington State vs Oregon State: questions and answers
Who will win Washington State vs Oregon State?
Our forecast picks Oregon State, with 64% to win; Washington State win 36% of the time.
What’s the spread for Washington State vs Oregon State?
Our spread: Oregon State −5.8. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Washington State vs Oregon State?
Saturday, October 17, 2026, at 6:00 pm ET, at Reser Stadium.
Washington State at 
Oregon State
