luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025

Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 32 of the 40 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Oregon State at Washington State, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

Washington State beat Oregon State 32–8, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Washington State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Washington State was an 82% favorite.

Final

Oregon State Beavers 8
Washington State Cougars 32

November 29, 2025 · Gesa Field · Closing line: Washington State −14

Luck index +1 Washington State about even · −1 Oregon State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Oregon State wins 0, Washington State wins 10.

  1. 1 ORST 14 WSU 21
  2. 2 ORST 13 WSU 24
  3. 3 ORST 13 WSU 28
  4. 4 ORST 3 WSU 21
  5. 5 ORST 3 WSU 25
  6. 6 ORST 3 WSU 28
  7. 7 ORST 0 WSU 28
  8. 8 ORST 3 WSU 34
  9. 9 ORST 6 WSU 42
  10. 10 ORST 0 WSU 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Oregon State wins 1% of them, Washington State 99%. The line is what actually happened: Washington State by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Oregon State by 17+0.0%
Oregon State by 9–160.1%
Oregon State by 1–80.7%
Level after regulation0.4%
Washington State by 1–84.0%
Washington State by 9–168.0%
Washington State by 17+86.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.0 points to Washington State: the final margin was Washington State by 24, without the luck Washington State by 13. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Stevens, 26 yds made · 92% expected
  • J. Stevens, 44 yds made · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Oregon State 11 for 102 yards, Washington State 7 for 79 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:32 Roughing the Passer on Oregon State, 15 yards +2% WSU +1.6 pts
Q1 9:21 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Oregon State, 10 yards +1% WSU +0.6 pts
Q1 8:29 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Washington State, 15 yards +2% ORST +1.6 pts
Q2 14:54 False Start on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ORST +0.5 pts
Q2 4:31 False Start on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WSU 0.0 pts
Q3 11:19 Face Mask on Oregon State, 15 yards 0% WSU +1.6 pts
Q3 10:20 Pass Interference on Oregon State, 12 yards, wiping out the play +1% WSU +3.4 pts
Q3 7:06 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Oregon State, 15 yards 0% WSU +1.6 pts
Q3 6:42 Offside on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WSU +0.3 pts
Q3 6:39 Unnecessary Roughness on Washington State, 27 yards 0% ORST +2.4 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ORST +0.9 pts
Q4 10:29 Holding on Oregon State, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% WSU +0.2 pts
Q4 9:15 Offside on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WSU +0.7 pts
Q4 6:02 Pass Interference on Washington State, 15 yards 0% ORST +1.8 pts
Q4 5:55 Delay of Game on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WSU +0.8 pts
Q4 5:49 Offside on Washington State, 2 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% WSU +10.4 pts
Q4 5:40 Holding on Washington State, 10 yards 0% ORST +0.6 pts
Q4 3:18 Illegal Snap on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WSU +0.4 pts

When it happened

Washington State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Washington State was ahead in it, below while Oregon State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:04 Washington State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +3% WSU WSU: Field goal
2 Q1 13:32 Roughing the Passer on Oregon State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +2% WSU WSU: Field goal
3 Q1 10:07 Washington State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +2% ORST WSU: Field goal
4 Q1 8:29 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Washington State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +2% ORST ORST: Turnover
5 Q1 7:25 Oregon State fumbled and Washington State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +2% WSU ORST: Punt
6 Q1 5:51 Washington State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +2% WSU WSU: Turnover on downs
7 Q1 4:59 Washington State was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +2% ORST WSU: Field goal
8 Q2 10:44 Oregon State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +2% ORST ORST: Turnover

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Oregon State 18% · Washington State 82%

Final margin
Washington State by 24
Luck in points
11.0 for Washington State
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington State by 13.0
Replay with same day's form
Oregon State 1% · Washington State 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 32 of the 40 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Oregon State · Washington State

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