Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Navy at Tulsa, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Navy beat Tulsa 42–23, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Navy wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Navy was an 82% favorite.
Final
 Navy Midshipmen | 42 |
|---|---|
 Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 Navy about even · −16 Tulsa
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Navy wins 8, Tulsa wins 2.
- 1 NAVY 56 TLSA 17
- 2 NAVY 48 TLSA 17
- 3 NAVY 31 TLSA 5
- 4 NAVY 28 TLSA 7
- 5 NAVY 28 TLSA 10
- 6 NAVY 34 TLSA 20
- 7 NAVY 31 TLSA 21
- 8 NAVY 33 TLSA 28
- 9 NAVY 20 TLSA 24
- 10 NAVY 35 TLSA 48
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Navy wins 84% of them, Tulsa 16%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Navy by 19.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Navy by 17+ | 47.5% |
| Navy by 9–16 | 17.9% |
| Navy by 1–8 | 18.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.0% |
| Tulsa by 1–8 | 8.3% |
| Tulsa by 9–16 | 4.8% |
| Tulsa by 17+ | 2.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Navy 4 for 39 yards, Tulsa 4 for 29 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:44 | Pass Interference on Navy, 14 yards | +4% TLSA +1.8 pts |
| Q1 5:52 | False Start on Tulsa, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NAVY +0.6 pts |
| Q1 3:34 | Holding on Navy, 10 yards | +1% TLSA +0.3 pts |
| Q2 8:59 | Holding on Tulsa, 10 yards | +1% NAVY +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:15 | Pass Interference on Tulsa, 13 yards | 0% NAVY +3.0 pts |
| Q3 8:19 | Holding on Navy, 10 yards | +1% TLSA +1.7 pts |
| Q3 2:25 | Offside on Tulsa, 1 yard · pre-snap | 0% NAVY +0.4 pts |
| Q3 0:25 | Offside on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TLSA +1.3 pts |
When it happened
Tulsa’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 50%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:39 | Tulsa was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +3% NAVY | TLSA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 8:46 | Navy fumbled and Tulsa recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% TLSA | NAVY: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 6:44 | Pass Interference on Navy, 14 yardsJudgment calls | +4% TLSA | TLSA: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 10:54 | Tulsa was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +4% NAVY | TLSA: Turnover |
| 5 | Q2 10:46 | Tulsa converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +5% TLSA | TLSA: Turnover |
| 6 | Q2 8:51 | Tulsa fumbled and Navy recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% NAVY | TLSA: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 7:04 | Navy converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +3% NAVY | NAVY: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 3:32 | Tulsa converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +4% TLSA | TLSA: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Navy 93% · Tulsa 7%
- Final margin
- Navy by 19
- Luck in points
- 9.4 for Navy
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Navy by 9.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Navy 84% · Tulsa 16% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Navy · 
Tulsa
More from Week 3 2025
- Florida Atlantic at Florida International FIU 38–28 · replay 31% for the winner
- Akron at UAB UAB 31–28 · replay 69% for the winner
- Duke at Tulane TULN 34–27 · replay 75% for the winner
- Monmouth at Charlotte CLT 42–35 · replay 86% for the winner
- East Carolina at Coastal Carolina ECU 38–0 · replay 96% for the winner
- Prairie View A&M at Rice RICE 38–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Incarnate Word at UTSA UTSA 48–20 · replay 98% for the winner
- Memphis at Troy MEM 28–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Washington State at North Texas UNT 59–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Temple OU 42–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- South Florida at Miami MIA 49–12 · replay 100% for the winner
- Georgia at Tennessee UGA 44–41 · replay 20% for the winner