Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Richmond at North Carolina, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
North Carolina beat Richmond 41–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, North Carolina wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff North Carolina was a 94% favorite.
Final
 Richmond Spiders | 6 |
|---|---|
 North Carolina Tar Heels | 41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 North Carolina about even · −1 Richmond
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Richmond wins 0, North Carolina wins 10.
- 1 RICH 3 UNC 10
- 2 RICH 3 UNC 17
- 3 RICH 0 UNC 17
- 4 RICH 3 UNC 22
- 5 RICH 13 UNC 35
- 6 RICH 0 UNC 24
- 7 RICH 0 UNC 27
- 8 RICH 0 UNC 30
- 9 RICH 3 UNC 38
- 10 RICH 3 UNC 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Richmond wins 1% of them, North Carolina 99%. The line is what actually happened: North Carolina by 35.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Richmond by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Richmond by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Richmond by 1–8 | 0.7% |
| Level after regulation | 0.2% |
| North Carolina by 1–8 | 3.3% |
| North Carolina by 9–16 | 10.5% |
| North Carolina by 17+ | 85.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Verhoff, 27 yds made · 90% expected
- R. Verhoff, 22 yds made · 94% expected
- J. Alsheskie, 25 yds made · 91% expected
- J. Alsheskie, 28 yds made · 89% expected
Penalties: Richmond 3 for 23 yards, North Carolina 2 for 20 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:50 | Offside on Richmond, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNC +3.1 pts |
| Q2 11:45 | Personal Foul on Richmond, 3 yards | 0% UNC +0.9 pts |
| Q4 14:53 | Roughing the Passer on North Carolina, 15 yards | 0% RICH +1.2 pts |
| Q4 11:01 | False Start on North Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% RICH +1.0 pts |
| Q4 0:06 | Personal Foul on Richmond, 15 yards | 0% UNC +0.9 pts |
When it happened
North Carolina’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:21 | North Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +0% RICH | UNC: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 8:15 | Richmond was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +0% UNC | RICH: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 6:23 | North Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +1% RICH | UNC: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 5:50 | Offside on Richmond, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% UNC | UNC: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 1:36 | Richmond was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +0% UNC | RICH: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 13:42 | Richmond fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% RICH | RICH: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 10:40 | Richmond converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +0% RICH | RICH: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q3 8:27 | Richmond was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +1% UNC | RICH: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Richmond 0% · North Carolina 100%
- Final margin
- North Carolina by 35
- Luck in points
- 9.9 for North Carolina
- Luck-adjusted margin
- North Carolina by 25.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Richmond 1% · North Carolina 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Richmond · 
North Carolina
More from Week 3 2025
- Clemson at Georgia Tech GT 24–21 · replay 33% for the winner
- NC State at Wake Forest NCSU 34–24 · replay 40% for the winner
- SMU at Missouri State SMU 28–10 · replay 46% for the winner
- Boston College at Stanford STAN 30–20 · replay 71% for the winner
- Minnesota at California CAL 27–14 · replay 72% for the winner
- Duke at Tulane TULN 34–27 · replay 75% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Virginia Tech ODU 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner
- Pittsburgh at West Virginia WVU 31–24 · replay 92% for the winner
- William & Mary at Virginia UVA 55–16 · replay 99% for the winner
- Colgate at Syracuse SYR 66–24 · replay 100% for the winner
- South Florida at Miami MIA 49–12 · replay 100% for the winner
- Georgia at Tennessee UGA 44–41 · replay 20% for the winner