Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025
Duke at Syracuse, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
Duke beat Syracuse 38–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Duke wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Duke was a 60% favorite.
Final
 Duke Blue Devils | 38 |
|---|---|
 Syracuse Orange | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Duke about even · −4 Syracuse
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Duke wins 10, Syracuse wins 0.
- 1 DUKE 48 SYR 0
- 2 DUKE 63 SYR 24
- 3 DUKE 34 SYR 0
- 4 DUKE 43 SYR 13
- 5 DUKE 41 SYR 14
- 6 DUKE 30 SYR 7
- 7 DUKE 33 SYR 13
- 8 DUKE 37 SYR 21
- 9 DUKE 38 SYR 26
- 10 DUKE 33 SYR 28
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Duke wins 96% of them, Syracuse 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Duke by 35.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Duke by 17+ | 74.9% |
| Duke by 9–16 | 12.3% |
| Duke by 1–8 | 8.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Syracuse by 1–8 | 2.5% |
| Syracuse by 9–16 | 0.9% |
| Syracuse by 17+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Pelino, 22 yds made · 94% expected
- T. Woody, 29 yds made · 88% expected
- T. Pelino, 45 yds missed · 64% expected
Penalties: Duke 8 for 98 yards, Syracuse 4 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:48 | Personal Foul on Duke, 15 yards | +3% SYR +1.6 pts |
| Q1 13:11 | Pass Interference on Duke, 15 yards | +3% SYR +1.7 pts |
| Q1 11:05 | Pass Interference on Duke, 15 yards | +2% SYR +1.3 pts |
| Q1 3:12 | Intentional Grounding on Duke, 8 yards | +3% SYR +1.7 pts |
| Q1 3:04 | Pass Interference on Duke, 0 yards | +2% DUKE +0.9 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Pass Interference on Duke, 15 yards | +2% SYR +1.1 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Holding on Syracuse, 10 yards | +2% DUKE +1.2 pts |
| Q2 12:01 | Pass Interference on Syracuse, 15 yards | +3% DUKE +2.1 pts |
| Q2 7:19 | Pass Interference on Syracuse, 15 yards | +1% DUKE +0.8 pts |
| Q3 14:13 | Pass Interference on Duke, 15 yards | +1% SYR +2.7 pts |
| Q4 10:23 | Pass Interference on Syracuse, 15 yards | 0% DUKE +1.7 pts |
| Q4 2:53 | Pass Interference on Duke, 15 yards | 0% SYR +0.8 pts |
When it happened
Syracuse’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:48 | Personal Foul on Duke, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% SYR | SYR: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 13:50 | Syracuse converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +3% SYR | SYR: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 13:11 | Pass Interference on Duke, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% SYR | SYR: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 7:52 | Syracuse converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +6% SYR | SYR: Field goal |
| 5 | Q1 3:14 | Duke converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +4% DUKE | DUKE: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 3:12 | Duke was stopped on 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedIntentional Grounding on Duke, 8 yardsJudgment calls | +5% SYR | DUKE: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 12:49 | Syracuse fumbled and Duke recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% DUKE | SYR: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 7:19 | Duke was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedDuke converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expectedDuke was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expectedDuke converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expectedDuke converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedPass Interference on Syracuse, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% DUKE | DUKE: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Duke 100% · Syracuse 0%
- Final margin
- Duke by 35
- Luck in points
- 8.8 for Duke
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Duke by 26.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Duke 96% · Syracuse 4% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
Duke · 
Syracuse
More from Week 5 2025
- Louisville at Pittsburgh LOU 34–27 · replay 11% for the winner
- California at Boston College CAL 28–24 · replay 28% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Wake Forest GT 30–29 · replay 40% for the winner
- San José State at Stanford STAN 30–29 · replay 43% for the winner
- Virginia Tech at NC State VT 23–21 · replay 45% for the winner
- Florida State at Virginia UVA 46–38 · replay 78% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Air Force HAW 44–35 · replay 5% for the winner
- Marshall at Louisiana UL 54–51 · replay 29% for the winner
- Cincinnati at Kansas CIN 37–34 · replay 30% for the winner
- Houston at Oregon State HOU 27–24 · replay 34% for the winner
- Oregon at Penn State ORE 30–24 · replay 39% for the winner
- Rutgers at Minnesota MINN 31–28 · replay 41% for the winner