Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025
California at Boston College, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
California beat Boston College 28–24, but the replays lean toward Boston College: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form.
Before kickoff Boston College was a 65% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:15 left): California was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 14 points of win probability to Boston College.
Final
 California Golden Bears | 28 |
|---|---|
 Boston College Eagles | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +72 California very lucky · −72 Boston College
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. California wins 3, Boston College wins 7.
- 1 CAL 31 BC 10
- 2 CAL 34 BC 24
- 3 CAL 24 BC 20
- 4 CAL 10 BC 13
- 5 CAL 24 BC 31
- 6 CAL 24 BC 34
- 7 CAL 17 BC 31
- 8 CAL 9 BC 27
- 9 CAL 7 BC 31
- 10 CAL 7 BC 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
California wins 28% of them, Boston College 72%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: California by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| California by 17+ | 5.8% |
| California by 9–16 | 7.3% |
| California by 1–8 | 14.4% |
| Level after regulation | 4.0% |
| Boston College by 1–8 | 20.0% |
| Boston College by 9–16 | 19.1% |
| Boston College by 17+ | 29.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: California 11 for 77 yards, Boston College 15 for 108 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Face Mask on California, 15 yards | +2% BC +0.9 pts |
| Q1 8:56 | Holding on California, 10 yards | 0% BC +0.6 pts |
| Q1 3:39 | Pass Interference on Boston College, 15 yards | +2% CAL +1.6 pts |
| Q1 3:28 | Face Mask on Boston College, 0 yards | +1% CAL +0.7 pts |
| Q1 3:17 | False Start on California, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BC +1.2 pts |
| Q2 9:45 | False Start on California, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BC +0.7 pts |
| Q2 9:21 | Face Mask on Boston College, 15 yards | +3% CAL +1.6 pts |
| Q2 5:25 | Offside on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CAL +0.3 pts |
| Q2 3:41 | False Start on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CAL +0.4 pts |
| Q3 13:03 | Pass Interference on California, 15 yards | +2% BC +0.9 pts |
| Q3 9:29 | Pass Interference on Boston College, 15 yards | +2% CAL +0.9 pts |
| Q3 5:58 | Pass Interference on Boston College, 5 yards | +3% CAL +1.0 pts |
| Q3 4:56 | Personal Foul on Boston College, 5 yards | +2% CAL +0.7 pts |
| Q3 0:08 | Offside on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CAL +0.5 pts |
| Q4 14:52 | Holding on Boston College, 1 yard | 0% CAL +0.1 pts |
| Q4 13:22 | Illegal Formation on California, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BC +0.3 pts |
| Q4 12:14 | Pass Interference on Boston College, 7 yards | +5% CAL +1.2 pts |
| Q4 2:26 | Holding on California, 10 yards | +4% BC +0.6 pts |
| Q4 1:52 | Pass Interference on Boston College, 15 yards | +13% CAL +1.6 pts |
| Q4 1:13 | False Start on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CAL +0.4 pts |
| Q4 0:53 | False Start on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CAL +0.3 pts |
| Q4 0:29 | Pass Interference on California, 12 yards | +11% BC +1.5 pts |
| Q4 0:19 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on California, 0 yards | 0% BC 0.0 pts |
| Q4 0:15 | False Start on California, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% BC 0.0 pts |
| Q4 0:15 | False Start on California, 0 yards · pre-snap | +1% BC +0.1 pts |
| Q4 0:12 | Offside on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CAL +0.1 pts |
When it happened
Boston College’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 88%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q4 14:56 | California was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +9% BC | CAL: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q4 8:57 | California was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +8% BC | CAL: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q4 8:15 | California was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +14% BC | CAL: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 4:56 | Boston College was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +6% CAL | BC: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 2:48 | California converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +8% CAL | CAL: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 1:52 | Pass Interference on Boston College, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +13% CAL | CAL: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 0:47 | Boston College converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +9% BC | BC: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 0:29 | Pass Interference on California, 12 yardsJudgment calls | +11% BC | BC: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
California 98% · Boston College 2%
- Final margin
- California by 4
- Luck in points
- 7.3 for Boston College
- Luck-adjusted margin
- California by 11.3
- Replay with same day's form
- California 28% · Boston College 72% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
California · 
Boston College
More from Week 5 2025
- Louisville at Pittsburgh LOU 34–27 · replay 11% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Wake Forest GT 30–29 · replay 40% for the winner
- San José State at Stanford STAN 30–29 · replay 43% for the winner
- Virginia Tech at NC State VT 23–21 · replay 45% for the winner
- Florida State at Virginia UVA 46–38 · replay 78% for the winner
- Duke at Syracuse DUKE 38–3 · replay 96% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Air Force HAW 44–35 · replay 5% for the winner
- Marshall at Louisiana UL 54–51 · replay 29% for the winner
- Cincinnati at Kansas CIN 37–34 · replay 30% for the winner
- Houston at Oregon State HOU 27–24 · replay 34% for the winner
- Oregon at Penn State ORE 30–24 · replay 39% for the winner
- Rutgers at Minnesota MINN 31–28 · replay 41% for the winner