luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 14 2025 · November 28, 2025

Temple at North Texas, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

North Texas beat Temple 52–25, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, North Texas wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff North Texas was a 91% favorite.

Final

Temple Owls 25
North Texas Mean Green 52

November 28, 2025 · DATCU Stadium · Closing line: North Texas −20.5

Luck index 0 North Texas about even · 0 Temple

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Temple wins 0, North Texas wins 10.

  1. 1 TEM 27 UNT 45
  2. 2 TEM 17 UNT 48
  3. 3 TEM 20 UNT 56
  4. 4 TEM 31 UNT 70
  5. 5 TEM 20 UNT 63
  6. 6 TEM 9 UNT 56
  7. 7 TEM 10 UNT 59
  8. 8 TEM 3 UNT 56
  9. 9 TEM 6 UNT 63
  10. 10 TEM 0 UNT 65

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Temple wins 0% of them, North Texas 100%. The line is what actually happened: North Texas by 27.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Temple by 17+0.0%
Temple by 9–160.0%
Temple by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
North Texas by 1–80.9%
North Texas by 9–161.7%
North Texas by 17+97.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.2 points to Temple: the final margin was North Texas by 27, without the luck North Texas by 29.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • K. Nguma, 27 yds made · 89% expected
  • C. Hardin, 26 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Temple 5 for 45 yards, North Texas 4 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:37 Ineligible Downfield on Temple, 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% UNT +1.5 pts
Q2 6:49 Offside on Temple, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNT +0.6 pts
Q2 1:53 Offside on Temple, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNT +0.5 pts
Q3 11:38 Pass Interference on Temple, 15 yards 0% UNT +2.4 pts
Q3 10:13 False Start on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEM +0.5 pts
Q3 6:06 Offside on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNT +0.6 pts
Q3 2:59 Pass Interference on Temple, 15 yards, wiping out the play +1% UNT +3.6 pts
Q4 2:17 Ineligible Downfield on North Texas, 5 yards 0% TEM +1.1 pts
Q4 1:21 Holding on North Texas, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% TEM +5.8 pts

When it happened

North Texas’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while North Texas was ahead in it, below while Temple was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:37 Ineligible Downfield on Temple, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +1% UNT UNT: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:55 Temple was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +1% UNT TEM: Punt
3 Q1 9:07 North Texas converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +2% UNT UNT: Touchdown
4 Q1 7:23 Temple converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +2% TEM TEM: Touchdown
5 Q1 5:22 Temple converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +2% TEM TEM: Touchdown
6 Q1 2:42 Temple converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +2% TEM TEM: Punt
7 Q2 12:04 Temple was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +1% UNT TEM: Punt
8 Q3 2:59 Pass Interference on Temple, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +1% UNT UNT: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Temple 0% · North Texas 100%

Final margin
North Texas by 27
Luck in points
2.2 for Temple
Luck-adjusted margin
North Texas by 29.2
Replay with same day's form
Temple 0% · North Texas 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Temple · North Texas

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