American · 2026 season, in progress

Temple Owls: luck and expected wins

Temple is 1–3 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.5 wins. Luck cost 1.5: the 3rd-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–2.

2026, game by game

How often Temple wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Rhode Island	W 38–14	95%	+5
Week 2	vs Penn State	L 9–27	47%	−47
Week 3	@ Toledo	L 48–49	14%	−14
Week 4	vs Army	L 17–21	91%	−91

Wk 1 +5 vs URI

Wk 2 −47 vs PSU

Wk 3 −14 @ TOL

Wk 4 −91 vs ARMY

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Temple win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	at South Florida	South Florida by 12.9	21%
Week 6 · Oct 10	vs UConn	Temple by 0.5	51%
Week 7 · Oct 17	vs Charlotte	Temple by 20.8	90%
Week 9 · Oct 31	at East Carolina	East Carolina by 5.5	37%
Week 10 · Nov 7	at Navy	Navy by 2.9	43%
Week 11 · Nov 14	vs UAB	Temple by 10.0	72%
Week 12 · Nov 19	vs Rice	Temple by 12.4	77%
Week 13 · Nov 27	at Memphis	Memphis by 8.9	30%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Temple’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Fumble bounces	−0.03	−1.5
Pre-snap flags	−0.05	−1.7
3rd & 4th downs	−0.22	−5.7

Luckiest wins

Wins Temple takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 9	@ Tulsa	W 38–37	60%	+40
2025 Week 6	vs UTSA	W 27–21	76%	+25
2025 Week 1	@ Massachusetts	W 42–10	91%	+9
2026 Week 1	vs Rhode Island	W 38–14	95%	+5
2025 Week 8	@ Charlotte	W 49–14	96%	+4

Unluckiest losses

Losses Temple would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 4	vs Army	L 17–21	91%	−91
2025 Week 7	vs Navy	L 31–32	85%	−85
2025 Week 11	@ Army	L 13–14	52%	−52
2026 Week 2	vs Penn State	L 9–27	47%	−47
2026 Week 3	@ Toledo	L 48–49	14%	−14

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	5–7	5.7	−0.7	2–2	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Massachusetts	W 42–10	91%	+9
Week 2	vs Howard	W 55–7	100%	0
Week 3	vs Oklahoma	L 3–42	0%	0
Week 4	@ Georgia Tech	L 24–45	0%	0
Week 6	vs UTSA	W 27–21	76%	+25
Week 7	vs Navy	L 31–32	85%	−85
Week 8	@ Charlotte	W 49–14	96%	+4
Week 9	@ Tulsa	W 38–37	60%	+40
Week 10	vs East Carolina	L 14–45	0%	0
Week 11	@ Army	L 13–14	52%	−52
Week 13	vs Tulane	L 13–37	7%	−7
Week 14	@ North Texas	L 25–52	0%	0