Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 52 of the 69 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Temple at Georgia Tech, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
Georgia Tech beat Temple 45–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Georgia Tech wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Georgia Tech was a 94% favorite.
Final
 Temple Owls | 24 |
|---|---|
 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 45 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Georgia Tech about even · 0 Temple
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Temple wins 0, Georgia Tech wins 10.
- 1 TEM 14 GT 27
- 2 TEM 17 GT 37
- 3 TEM 38 GT 62
- 4 TEM 7 GT 34
- 5 TEM 0 GT 31
- 6 TEM 0 GT 35
- 7 TEM 7 GT 45
- 8 TEM 7 GT 48
- 9 TEM 3 GT 49
- 10 TEM 13 GT 66
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Temple wins 0% of them, Georgia Tech 100%. The line is what actually happened: Georgia Tech by 21.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Temple by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Temple by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Temple by 1–8 | 0.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Georgia Tech by 1–8 | 1.7% |
| Georgia Tech by 9–16 | 3.7% |
| Georgia Tech by 17+ | 94.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Hardin, 61 yds missed · 38% expected
- A. Birr, 32 yds made · 87% expected
Penalties: Temple 6 for 55 yards, Georgia Tech 3 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:53 | False Start on Temple, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GT +0.9 pts |
| Q2 6:19 | Illegal Snap on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEM +0.8 pts |
| Q2 5:52 | Illegal Formation on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEM +0.9 pts |
| Q2 1:01 | Holding on Temple, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% GT +1.4 pts |
| Q2 1:01 | Unnecessary Roughness on Georgia Tech, 15 yards | 0% TEM +1.0 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Penalty on Temple, 5 yards | 0% GT +0.3 pts |
| Q3 12:11 | Face Mask on Temple, 15 yards | +1% GT +1.6 pts |
| Q4 12:33 | Offside on Temple, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GT +0.6 pts |
| Q4 11:18 | Penalty on Temple, 15 yards | 0% GT +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Georgia Tech’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:15 | Temple was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +1% GT | TEM: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 9:33 | Temple was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +0% GT | TEM: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 0:31 | Temple was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +0% GT | TEM: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q2 0:27 | Temple converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +0% TEM | TEM: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q3 14:34 | Georgia Tech fumbled and Temple recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% TEM | GT: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 12:11 | Face Mask on Temple, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% GT | GT: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 9:36 | Georgia Tech was stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +0% TEM | GT: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 8:12 | Temple converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +0% TEM | TEM: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Temple 0% · Georgia Tech 100%
- Final margin
- Georgia Tech by 21
- Luck in points
- 2.6 for Georgia Tech
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Georgia Tech by 18.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Temple 0% · Georgia Tech 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 52 of the 69 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
Temple · 
Georgia Tech
More from Week 4 2025
- Arkansas at Memphis MEM 32–31 · replay 30% for the winner
- Syracuse at Clemson SYR 34–21 · replay 34% for the winner
- NC State at Duke DUKE 45–33 · replay 35% for the winner
- UTSA at Colorado State UTSA 17–16 · replay 40% for the winner
- Tulsa at Oklahoma State TLSA 19–12 · replay 44% for the winner
- North Texas at Army UNT 45–38 · replay 50% for the winner
- BYU at East Carolina BYU 34–13 · replay 66% for the winner
- SMU at TCU TCU 35–24 · replay 74% for the winner
- Rice at Charlotte RICE 28–17 · replay 87% for the winner
- North Carolina at UCF UCF 34–9 · replay 91% for the winner
- California at San Diego State SDSU 34–0 · replay 92% for the winner
- Florida at Miami MIA 26–7 · replay 98% for the winner