Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025
North Texas at Army, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
North Texas beat Army 45–38, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, North Texas wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 16 points of win probability to North Texas.
Before kickoff North Texas was a 56% favorite.
Final (OT)
 North Texas Mean Green | 45 |
|---|---|
 Army Black Knights | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +50 North Texas lucky · −50 Army
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. North Texas wins 5, Army wins 5.
- 1 UNT 42 ARMY 17
- 2 UNT 45 ARMY 28
- 3 UNT 37 ARMY 27
- 4 UNT 35 ARMY 28
- 5 UNT 31 ARMY 28
- 6 UNT 21 ARMY 24
- 7 UNT 28 ARMY 34
- 8 UNT 21 ARMY 31
- 9 UNT 14 ARMY 28
- 10 UNT 14 ARMY 35
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
North Texas wins 50% of them, Army 50%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: North Texas by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| North Texas by 17+ | 13.6% |
| North Texas by 9–16 | 13.7% |
| North Texas by 1–8 | 22.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| Army by 1–8 | 20.4% |
| Army by 9–16 | 15.9% |
| Army by 17+ | 12.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- K. Nguma, 23 yds made · 91% expected
- D. Jones, 23 yds made · 92% expected
Penalties: North Texas 7 for 50 yards, Army 0 for 0 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:33 | Holding on North Texas, 10 yards | +1% ARMY +0.6 pts |
| Q1 9:01 | False Start on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARMY +0.4 pts |
| Q2 9:59 | Holding on North Texas, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% ARMY +2.1 pts |
| Q2 6:58 | False Start on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARMY +1.2 pts |
| Q3 11:00 | False Start on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARMY +0.7 pts |
| Q4 14:55 | Offside on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARMY +0.3 pts |
| Q4 4:27 | Holding on North Texas, 10 yards | 0% ARMY +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Army’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:02 | North Texas converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +4% UNT | UNT: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 5:06 | Army fumbled and North Texas recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% UNT | ARMY: Turnover |
| 3 | Q4 7:42 | Army converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +3% ARMY | ARMY: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q4 2:56 | Army converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +5% ARMY | ARMY: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 2:49 | North Texas fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% UNT | UNT: End of game |
| 6 | Q4 1:59 | Army converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +6% ARMY | ARMY: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 1:29 | Army converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +7% ARMY | ARMY: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:12 | Army was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +4% UNT | ARMY: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
North Texas 94% · Army 6%
- Final margin
- North Texas by 7
- Luck in points
- 3.3 for Army
- Luck-adjusted margin
- North Texas by 10.3
- Replay with same day's form
- North Texas 50% · Army 50% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
North Texas · 
Army
More from Week 4 2025
- Arkansas at Memphis MEM 32–31 · replay 30% for the winner
- UTSA at Colorado State UTSA 17–16 · replay 40% for the winner
- Tulsa at Oklahoma State TLSA 19–12 · replay 44% for the winner
- BYU at East Carolina BYU 34–13 · replay 66% for the winner
- Rice at Charlotte RICE 28–17 · replay 87% for the winner
- Tulane at Ole Miss MISS 45–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- South Carolina State at South Florida USF 63–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Temple at Georgia Tech GT 45–24 · replay 100% for the winner
- UAB at Tennessee TENN 56–24 · replay 100% for the winner
- Fresno State at Hawai'i FRES 23–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Troy at Buffalo TROY 21–17 · replay 30% for the winner
- Syracuse at Clemson SYR 34–21 · replay 34% for the winner