luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025

South Carolina State at South Florida, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

South Florida beat South Carolina State 63–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, South Florida wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff South Florida was a 99% favorite.

Final

South Carolina State Bulldogs 14
South Florida Bulls 63

September 20, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: South Florida −36.5

Luck index 0 South Florida about even · 0 South Carolina State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. South Carolina State wins 0, South Florida wins 10.

  1. 1 SCST 21 USF 33
  2. 2 SCST 14 USF 33
  3. 3 SCST 24 USF 48
  4. 4 SCST 21 USF 49
  5. 5 SCST 20 USF 52
  6. 6 SCST 13 USF 49
  7. 7 SCST 17 USF 56
  8. 8 SCST 0 USF 42
  9. 9 SCST 3 USF 51
  10. 10 SCST 14 USF 70

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

South Carolina State wins 0% of them, South Florida 100%. The line is what actually happened: South Florida by 49.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
South Carolina State by 17+0.0%
South Carolina State by 9–160.1%
South Carolina State by 1–80.3%
Level after regulation0.1%
South Florida by 1–81.5%
South Florida by 9–163.2%
South Florida by 17+94.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.0 points to South Carolina State: the final margin was South Florida by 49, without the luck South Florida by 52. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: South Carolina State 9 for 55 yards, South Florida 7 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:58 False Start on South Carolina State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USF +0.8 pts
Q2 14:22 Roughing the Passer on South Carolina State, 15 yards, wiping out the play +1% USF +5.2 pts
Q2 10:14 False Start on South Carolina State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USF +0.6 pts
Q2 9:22 Offside on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SCST +0.6 pts
Q2 2:35 Illegal Substitution on South Carolina State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SCST +0.2 pts
Q2 0:43 Pass Interference on South Florida, 15 yards 0% SCST +2.2 pts
Q2 0:21 Penalty on South Carolina State, 5 yards 0% USF +0.3 pts
Q2 0:05 Offside on South Carolina State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USF +0.5 pts
Q3 14:27 Holding on South Florida, 10 yards 0% SCST +0.6 pts
Q3 13:12 False Start on South Carolina State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USF +0.6 pts
Q3 4:07 Personal Foul on South Florida, 15 yards 0% SCST +3.5 pts
Q3 3:37 Illegal Formation on South Carolina State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USF +0.8 pts
Q4 3:00 Offside on South Carolina State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USF +0.5 pts
Q4 2:10 Holding on South Florida, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% SCST +2.4 pts
Q4 2:00 False Start on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SCST +0.2 pts
Q4 1:32 Illegal Shift on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SCST +0.5 pts

When it happened

South Florida’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while South Florida was ahead in it, below while South Carolina State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:04 South Carolina State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +0% SCST SCST: Punt
2 Q1 9:27 Return touchdown by South FloridaSpecial teams +2% USF USF: Punt
3 Q1 4:07 South Florida was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +0% SCST USF: Punt
4 Q1 2:03 South Carolina State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +0% USF SCST: Punt
5 Q2 14:22 Roughing the Passer on South Carolina State, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +1% USF USF: Touchdown
6 Q2 10:32 South Carolina State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +0% SCST SCST: Punt
7 Q2 7:43 South Florida converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +0% USF USF: Touchdown
8 Q2 0:21 Penalty on South Carolina State, 5 yardsJudgment calls +0% USF USF: Missed field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

South Carolina State 0% · South Florida 100%

Final margin
South Florida by 49
Luck in points
3.0 for South Carolina State
Luck-adjusted margin
South Florida by 52.0
Replay with same day's form
South Carolina State 0% · South Florida 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · South Carolina State · South Florida

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