Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025
Florida at Miami, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
Miami beat Florida 26–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Miami wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Miami was a 71% favorite.
Final
 Florida Gators | 7 |
|---|---|
 Miami Hurricanes | 26 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Miami about even · −2 Florida
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Florida wins 0, Miami wins 10.
- 1 FLA 6 MIA 10
- 2 FLA 10 MIA 19
- 3 FLA 7 MIA 19
- 4 FLA 7 MIA 21
- 5 FLA 0 MIA 17
- 6 FLA 0 MIA 21
- 7 FLA 3 MIA 27
- 8 FLA 3 MIA 30
- 9 FLA 0 MIA 30
- 10 FLA 3 MIA 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Florida wins 2% of them, Miami 98%. The line is what actually happened: Miami by 19.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Florida by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Florida by 9–16 | 0.3% |
| Florida by 1–8 | 2.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Miami by 1–8 | 10.8% |
| Miami by 9–16 | 15.7% |
| Miami by 17+ | 71.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Davis, 53 yds made · 49% expected
- C. Davis, 28 yds made · 90% expected
Penalties: Florida 3 for 20 yards, Miami 6 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:10 | False Start on Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIA +1.4 pts |
| Q1 6:56 | False Start on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FLA +1.0 pts |
| Q1 0:48 | False Start on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FLA +0.4 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FLA +0.4 pts |
| Q2 10:07 | Holding on Florida, 10 yards | +2% MIA +2.0 pts |
| Q2 8:15 | Delay of Game on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FLA +0.5 pts |
| Q2 6:22 | Delay of Game on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FLA +0.4 pts |
| Q2 1:40 | False Start on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FLA +0.1 pts |
| Q2 0:56 | False Start on Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIA +0.2 pts |
When it happened
Miami’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:27 | Miami converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +3% MIA | MIA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 6:28 | Miami converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +3% MIA | MIA: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 14:04 | C. Davis made a 53-yard field goalKicks · 49% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before | +3% MIA | MIA: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 4:36 | Florida converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +3% FLA | FLA: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 2:32 | Florida was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +4% MIA | FLA: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q3 2:05 | Florida converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +8% FLA | FLA: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 14:50 | Florida was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +7% MIA | FLA: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 11:55 | Florida was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +6% MIA | FLA: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Florida 10% · Miami 90%
- Final margin
- Miami by 19
- Luck in points
- 10.7 for Miami
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Miami by 8.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Florida 2% · Miami 98% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
Florida · 
Miami
More from Week 4 2025
- Arkansas at Memphis MEM 32–31 · replay 30% for the winner
- Syracuse at Clemson SYR 34–21 · replay 34% for the winner
- NC State at Duke DUKE 45–33 · replay 35% for the winner
- Auburn at Oklahoma OU 24–17 · replay 60% for the winner
- SMU at TCU TCU 35–24 · replay 74% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Mississippi State MSST 38–10 · replay 88% for the winner
- North Carolina at UCF UCF 34–9 · replay 91% for the winner
- California at San Diego State SDSU 34–0 · replay 92% for the winner
- South Carolina at Missouri MIZ 29–20 · replay 92% for the winner
- Tulane at Ole Miss MISS 45–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Louisville LOU 40–17 · replay 99% for the winner
- Stanford at Virginia UVA 48–20 · replay 99% for the winner