luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025

Bowling Green at Louisville, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

Louisville beat Bowling Green 40–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Louisville wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Louisville was a 96% favorite.

Final

Bowling Green Falcons 17
Louisville Cardinals 40

September 20, 2025 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · Closing line: Louisville −26.5

Luck index +1 Louisville about even · −1 Bowling Green

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bowling Green wins 0, Louisville wins 10.

  1. 1 BGSU 23 LOU 28
  2. 2 BGSU 20 LOU 30
  3. 3 BGSU 7 LOU 24
  4. 4 BGSU 3 LOU 24
  5. 5 BGSU 17 LOU 41
  6. 6 BGSU 10 LOU 38
  7. 7 BGSU 14 LOU 45
  8. 8 BGSU 14 LOU 49
  9. 9 BGSU 0 LOU 41
  10. 10 BGSU 5 LOU 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bowling Green wins 1% of them, Louisville 99%. The line is what actually happened: Louisville by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bowling Green by 17+0.0%
Bowling Green by 9–160.3%
Bowling Green by 1–80.7%
Level after regulation0.2%
Louisville by 1–83.8%
Louisville by 9–169.2%
Louisville by 17+85.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.3 points to Louisville: the final margin was Louisville by 23, without the luck Louisville by 18.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Kleather, 49 yds made · 57% expected
  • C. Ranvier, 24 yds made · 92% expected
  • C. Ranvier, 40 yds made · 73% expected
  • N. Keller, 57 yds made · 42% expected
  • C. Ranvier, 48 yds made · 58% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bowling Green 7 for 45 yards, Louisville 6 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:53 Pass Interference on Louisville, 15 yards +1% BGSU +1.7 pts
Q1 2:54 Personal Foul on Bowling Green, 5 yards 0% LOU +1.0 pts
Q2 13:43 Illegal Shift on Louisville, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% BGSU +1.7 pts
Q2 12:42 Holding on Louisville, 10 yards +1% BGSU +1.4 pts
Q2 11:04 Personal Foul on Bowling Green, 2 yards 0% BGSU +0.6 pts
Q2 9:36 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Bowling Green, 15 yards 0% LOU +1.7 pts
Q2 0:42 Illegal Touching on Bowling Green, 0 yards 0% LOU +0.4 pts
Q3 11:34 Holding on Louisville, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% BGSU +1.2 pts
Q3 0:53 False Start on Bowling Green, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LOU +1.3 pts
Q4 7:15 False Start on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BGSU +1.1 pts
Q4 6:54 Holding on Bowling Green, 3 yards 0% LOU +1.1 pts
Q4 3:33 Holding on Louisville, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% BGSU +1.2 pts
Q4 2:26 Roughing the Passer on Bowling Green, 15 yards 0% LOU +1.6 pts

When it happened

Louisville’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Louisville was ahead in it, below while Bowling Green was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:20 Louisville was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +1% BGSU LOU: Punt
2 Q1 8:51 Louisville fumbled and Bowling Green recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +2% BGSU LOU: Touchdown
3 Q1 7:26 Bowling Green was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +1% LOU BGSU: Field goal
4 Q1 6:44 J. Kleather made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 57% expected for him, 4 of 6 from 45+ before +1% BGSU BGSU: Turnover
5 Q1 5:53 Pass Interference on Louisville, 15 yardsJudgment calls +1% BGSU BGSU: Turnover
6 Q1 0:00 Bowling Green converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +2% BGSU BGSU: Turnover
7 Q2 13:43 Illegal Shift on Louisville, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +1% BGSU BGSU: Punt
8 Q2 12:00 Louisville converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +1% LOU LOU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bowling Green 0% · Louisville 100%

Final margin
Louisville by 23
Luck in points
4.3 for Louisville
Luck-adjusted margin
Louisville by 18.7
Replay with same day's form
Bowling Green 1% · Louisville 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · Bowling Green · Louisville

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