Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025
Vanderbilt at Tennessee, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Vanderbilt beat Tennessee 45–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Vanderbilt wins 10 of 10.
An off day for Tennessee: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Vanderbilt it would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%. The numbers
Before kickoff Tennessee was a 56% favorite.
Final
 Vanderbilt Commodores | 45 |
|---|---|
 Tennessee Volunteers | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Vanderbilt about even · −5 Tennessee
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Vanderbilt wins 10, Tennessee wins 0.
- 1 VAN 62 TENN 14
- 2 VAN 49 TENN 10
- 3 VAN 63 TENN 28
- 4 VAN 38 TENN 7
- 5 VAN 37 TENN 10
- 6 VAN 41 TENN 17
- 7 VAN 44 TENN 24
- 8 VAN 35 TENN 20
- 9 VAN 38 TENN 27
- 10 VAN 28 TENN 23
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Tennessee
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Vanderbilt it would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
45 points apart for Tennessee: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vanderbilt offenseEPA per play gained | +0.52 | +0.18 | better by 0.35 |
| Vanderbilt defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.15 | +0.13 | worse by 0.02 |
| Tennessee offenseEPA per play gained | +0.15 | +0.16 | worse by 0.01 |
| Tennessee defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.52 | +0.05 | worse by 0.47 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Vanderbilt wins 95% of them, Tennessee 5%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vanderbilt by 21.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Vanderbilt by 17+ | 74.0% |
| Vanderbilt by 9–16 | 11.8% |
| Vanderbilt by 1–8 | 8.6% |
| Level after regulation | 1.4% |
| Tennessee by 1–8 | 3.0% |
| Tennessee by 9–16 | 1.0% |
| Tennessee by 17+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- B. Taylor, 35 yds made · 85% expected
- M. Gilbert, 25 yds made · 93% expected
Penalties: Vanderbilt 6 for 51 yards, Tennessee 4 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:03 | Face Mask on Tennessee, 15 yards | 0% VAN +1.6 pts |
| Q2 12:56 | False Start on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TENN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 6:33 | Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yards | +2% TENN +1.0 pts |
| Q2 4:33 | Pass Interference on Vanderbilt, 11 yards | +3% TENN +1.4 pts |
| Q2 4:23 | Pass Interference on Tennessee, 13 yards, wiping out the play | +3% VAN +1.5 pts |
| Q2 0:44 | False Start on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TENN +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:20 | Roughing the Passer on Tennessee, 7 yards | +6% VAN +2.2 pts |
| Q3 3:35 | False Start on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% VAN +0.2 pts |
| Q4 14:59 | Pass Interference on Vanderbilt, 15 yards | +3% TENN +0.8 pts |
| Q4 2:24 | Holding on Tennessee, 10 yards | 0% VAN +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Tennessee’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 82%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 2:36 | Vanderbilt fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% VAN | VAN: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 8:09 | Tennessee converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +6% TENN | TENN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 0:20 | Roughing the Passer on Tennessee, 7 yardsJudgment calls | +6% VAN | VAN: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 4:51 | Vanderbilt converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +4% VAN | VAN: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 0:56 | Tennessee converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +6% TENN | TENN: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 12:31 | M. Gilbert made a 25-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him | +7% VAN | TENN: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 12:23 | Vanderbilt fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% VAN | VAN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 9:36 | Vanderbilt converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +4% VAN | VAN: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Vanderbilt 100% · Tennessee 0%
- Final margin
- Vanderbilt by 21
- Luck in points
- 1.0 for Vanderbilt
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Vanderbilt by 20.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Vanderbilt 95% · Tennessee 5% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Vanderbilt · 
Tennessee
More from Week 14 2025
- Texas A&M at Texas TEX 27–17 · replay 31% for the winner
- Georgia vs Georgia Tech UGA 16–9 · replay 35% for the winner
- Alabama at Auburn ALA 27–20 · replay 41% for the winner
- Clemson at South Carolina CLEM 28–14 · replay 47% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Mississippi State MISS 38–19 · replay 78% for the winner
- Florida State at Florida FLA 40–21 · replay 78% for the winner
- Missouri at Arkansas MIZ 31–17 · replay 84% for the winner
- LSU at Oklahoma OU 17–13 · replay 96% for the winner
- Kentucky at Louisville LOU 41–0 · replay 98% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner