Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025
Missouri at Arkansas, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Missouri beat Arkansas 31–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Missouri wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Missouri was a 61% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:30 left): Missouri converted 3rd & 14, worth 10 points of win probability to Missouri.
Final
 Missouri Tigers | 31 |
|---|---|
 Arkansas Razorbacks | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 Missouri about even · −16 Arkansas
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Missouri wins 8, Arkansas wins 2.
- 1 MIZ 35 ARK 3
- 2 MIZ 28 ARK 2
- 3 MIZ 31 ARK 10
- 4 MIZ 24 ARK 7
- 5 MIZ 20 ARK 6
- 6 MIZ 28 ARK 17
- 7 MIZ 21 ARK 14
- 8 MIZ 13 ARK 10
- 9 MIZ 10 ARK 14
- 10 MIZ 14 ARK 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Missouri wins 84% of them, Arkansas 16%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Missouri by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Missouri by 17+ | 38.6% |
| Missouri by 9–16 | 22.2% |
| Missouri by 1–8 | 22.8% |
| Level after regulation | 1.4% |
| Arkansas by 1–8 | 10.2% |
| Arkansas by 9–16 | 3.8% |
| Arkansas by 17+ | 1.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Starzyk, 28 yds made · 90% expected
- S. Starzyk, 42 yds missed · 70% expected
- O. Robbins, 41 yds made · 71% expected
Penalties: Missouri 5 for 45 yards, Arkansas 15 for 120 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:42 | Illegal Shift on Arkansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIZ +1.3 pts |
| Q1 10:33 | False Start on Arkansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIZ +0.8 pts |
| Q2 12:57 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Arkansas, 15 yards | +4% MIZ +1.6 pts |
| Q2 8:54 | False Start on Arkansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIZ +0.6 pts |
| Q2 5:20 | Offside on Arkansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARK +0.4 pts |
| Q2 4:40 | Holding on Missouri, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% ARK +2.0 pts |
| Q2 4:19 | Personal Foul on Arkansas, 15 yards | +4% MIZ +1.4 pts |
| Q2 3:05 | Pass Interference on Arkansas, 7 yards | +3% MIZ +1.2 pts |
| Q2 0:26 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Arkansas, 15 yards | 0% ARK +0.1 pts |
| Q2 0:18 | Holding on Arkansas, 10 yards | +2% MIZ +0.7 pts |
| Q3 13:27 | Illegal Formation on Arkansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIZ +0.3 pts |
| Q3 5:12 | Offside on Arkansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +8% MIZ +2.6 pts |
| Q3 4:25 | Illegal Formation on Missouri, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +4% ARK +1.4 pts |
| Q3 0:11 | False Start on Missouri, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARK +0.6 pts |
| Q4 10:52 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Missouri, 15 yards | +2% ARK +0.9 pts |
| Q4 7:14 | Illegal Touching on Arkansas, 0 yards | 0% MIZ +0.4 pts |
| Q4 4:40 | Holding on Missouri, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% ARK +2.3 pts |
| Q4 4:40 | Illegal Formation on Arkansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIZ +0.3 pts |
| Q4 4:24 | Illegal Use of Hands on Arkansas, 15 yards | 0% MIZ +1.6 pts |
| Q4 1:36 | Block Below the Waist on Arkansas, 8 yards | 0% MIZ +1.2 pts |
When it happened
Arkansas’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 56%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 7:06 | Arkansas converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +5% ARK | ARK: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 4:40 | Holding on Missouri, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% ARK | ARK: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 12:37 | Missouri converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +7% MIZ | MIZ: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 11:31 | Arkansas fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% ARK | ARK: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q3 5:41 | Missouri was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +6% ARK | MIZ: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 5:12 | Offside on Arkansas, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +8% MIZ | MIZ: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 13:30 | Missouri converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +10% MIZ | MIZ: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 9:04 | Arkansas was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +5% MIZ | ARK: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Missouri 89% · Arkansas 11%
- Final margin
- Missouri by 14
- Luck in points
- 5.4 for Missouri
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Missouri by 8.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Missouri 84% · Arkansas 16% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Missouri · 
Arkansas
More from Week 14 2025
- Texas A&M at Texas TEX 27–17 · replay 31% for the winner
- Georgia vs Georgia Tech UGA 16–9 · replay 35% for the winner
- Alabama at Auburn ALA 27–20 · replay 41% for the winner
- Clemson at South Carolina CLEM 28–14 · replay 47% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Mississippi State MISS 38–19 · replay 78% for the winner
- Florida State at Florida FLA 40–21 · replay 78% for the winner
- Vanderbilt at Tennessee VAN 45–24 · replay 95% for the winner
- LSU at Oklahoma OU 17–13 · replay 96% for the winner
- Kentucky at Louisville LOU 41–0 · replay 98% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner