Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025
Fresno State at San José State, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Fresno State beat San José State 41–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Fresno State wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Fresno State was a 58% favorite.
Final
 Fresno State Bulldogs | 41 |
|---|---|
 San José State Spartans | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 Fresno State about even · −16 San José State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Fresno State wins 8, San José State wins 2.
- 1 FRES 43 SJSU 6
- 2 FRES 34 SJSU 6
- 3 FRES 30 SJSU 6
- 4 FRES 20 SJSU 0
- 5 FRES 26 SJSU 10
- 6 FRES 21 SJSU 9
- 7 FRES 17 SJSU 10
- 8 FRES 17 SJSU 14
- 9 FRES 6 SJSU 10
- 10 FRES 17 SJSU 29
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Fresno State wins 84% of them, San José State 16%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Fresno State by 27.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Fresno State by 17+ | 41.8% |
| Fresno State by 9–16 | 20.6% |
| Fresno State by 1–8 | 16.7% |
| Level after regulation | 5.0% |
| San José State by 1–8 | 10.1% |
| San José State by 9–16 | 4.2% |
| San José State by 17+ | 1.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Lynch, 34 yds made · 81% expected
- D. Lynch, 41 yds made · 70% expected
- D. Lynch, 43 yds missed · 64% expected
- D. Lynch, 41 yds made · 70% expected
- D. Lynch, 33 yds made · 83% expected
Penalties: Fresno State 5 for 60 yards, San José State 2 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:54 | Pass Interference on San José State, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +7% FRES +3.8 pts |
| Q2 6:38 | Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards | +3% SJSU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 8:20 | Face Mask on Fresno State, 15 yards | 0% SJSU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 7:58 | Face Mask on Fresno State, 15 yards | +1% SJSU +1.2 pts |
| Q3 7:49 | Holding on San José State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% FRES +3.3 pts |
| Q3 7:23 | Pass Interference on Fresno State, 15 yards | +3% SJSU +2.6 pts |
| Q4 6:54 | Offside on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SJSU +0.3 pts |
When it happened
San José State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:54 | Pass Interference on San José State, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +7% FRES | FRES: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:25 | Fresno State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +4% SJSU | FRES: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 1:28 | Fresno State converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +5% FRES | FRES: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 12:16 | Fresno State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +4% FRES | FRES: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 7:08 | Fresno State fumbled and San José State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% SJSU | FRES: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 6:38 | Holding on Fresno State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% SJSU | SJSU: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q2 6:01 | D. Lynch missed a 43-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him | +5% FRES | SJSU: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q3 7:49 | Holding on San José State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +4% FRES | FRES: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Fresno State 99% · San José State 1%
- Final margin
- Fresno State by 27
- Luck in points
- 9.3 for Fresno State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Fresno State by 17.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Fresno State 84% · San José State 16% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Fresno State · 
San José State
More from Week 14 2025
- San Diego State at New Mexico UNM 23–17 · replay 26% for the winner
- Boise State at Utah State BOIS 25–24 · replay 43% for the winner
- Air Force at Colorado State AF 42–21 · replay 71% for the winner
- Wyoming at Hawai'i HAW 27–7 · replay 89% for the winner
- UNLV at Nevada UNLV 42–17 · replay 98% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner
- Army at UTSA ARMY 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Marshall GASO 24–19 · replay 31% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Texas TEX 27–17 · replay 31% for the winner
- Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State MTSU 31–24 · replay 32% for the winner