Week 14 2025 · November 28, 2025
Boise State at Utah State, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Boise State beat Utah State 25–24, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Boise State wins 4 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 13 points of win probability to Boise State.
Before kickoff Boise State was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:25 left): Holding on Utah State, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 41 points of win probability to Boise State.
Final
 Boise State Broncos | 25 |
|---|---|
 Utah State Aggies | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +57 Boise State lucky · −57 Utah State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Boise State wins 4, Utah State wins 6.
- 1 BOIS 31 USU 7
- 2 BOIS 40 USU 24
- 3 BOIS 24 USU 14
- 4 BOIS 13 USU 10
- 5 BOIS 17 USU 20
- 6 BOIS 28 USU 35
- 7 BOIS 17 USU 27
- 8 BOIS 17 USU 31
- 9 BOIS 0 USU 20
- 10 BOIS 16 USU 47
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Boise State wins 43% of them, Utah State 57%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Boise State by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Boise State by 17+ | 13.1% |
| Boise State by 9–16 | 11.8% |
| Boise State by 1–8 | 15.4% |
| Level after regulation | 4.0% |
| Utah State by 1–8 | 18.5% |
| Utah State by 9–16 | 15.0% |
| Utah State by 17+ | 22.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Boomer, 27 yds made · 89% expected
- C. Boomer, 43 yds missed · 66% expected
- C. Boomer, 32 yds made · 83% expected
- T. Rinker, 37 yds made · 78% expected
Penalties: Boise State 7 for 65 yards, Utah State 11 for 91 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Pass Interference on Boise State, 15 yards | +4% USU +2.2 pts |
| Q1 15:00 | False Start on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BOIS +0.5 pts |
| Q1 13:06 | Pass Interference on Boise State, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +10% USU +4.5 pts |
| Q1 7:04 | Kick Catch Interference on Utah State, 15 yards | +2% BOIS +0.9 pts |
| Q1 3:54 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Utah State, 15 yards | +4% BOIS +1.6 pts |
| Q1 3:47 | False Start on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% USU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 0:20 | False Start on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% USU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 4:07 | Holding on Utah State, 10 yards | +2% BOIS +0.6 pts |
| Q2 3:54 | Roughing the Passer on Boise State, 15 yards | +4% USU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 2:09 | Targeting on Boise State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +11% USU +4.2 pts |
| Q2 1:39 | Illegal Substitution on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BOIS +0.6 pts |
| Q3 4:13 | False Start on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BOIS +0.6 pts |
| Q3 2:22 | False Start on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BOIS +0.6 pts |
| Q4 2:34 | Holding on Utah State, 6 yards | +14% BOIS +1.6 pts |
| Q4 2:21 | Holding on Utah State, 10 yards | +8% BOIS +0.9 pts |
| Q4 1:39 | Offside on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% USU +0.1 pts |
| Q4 1:35 | Holding on Boise State, 10 yards | +8% USU +1.0 pts |
| Q4 0:25 | Holding on Utah State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +41% BOIS +2.9 pts |
When it happened
Utah State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:06 | Pass Interference on Boise State, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +10% USU | USU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 2:09 | Targeting on Boise State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +11% USU | USU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 8:06 | Boise State fumbled and Utah State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% USU | BOIS: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 5:22 | Utah State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +17% BOIS | USU: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 2:34 | Holding on Utah State, 6 yardsJudgment calls | +14% BOIS | BOIS: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 2:26 | Boise State’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +10% USU | BOIS: End of game |
| 7 | Q4 0:25 | Holding on Utah State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +41% BOIS | BOIS: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 0:24 | Boise State was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +14% USU | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Boise State 48% · Utah State 52%
- Final margin
- Boise State by 1
- Luck in points
- 1.5 for Boise State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Utah State by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Boise State 43% · Utah State 57% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Boise State · 
Utah State
More from Week 14 2025
- San Diego State at New Mexico UNM 23–17 · replay 26% for the winner
- Air Force at Colorado State AF 42–21 · replay 71% for the winner
- Fresno State at San José State FRES 41–14 · replay 84% for the winner
- Wyoming at Hawai'i HAW 27–7 · replay 89% for the winner
- UNLV at Nevada UNLV 42–17 · replay 98% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner
- Army at UTSA ARMY 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Marshall GASO 24–19 · replay 31% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Texas TEX 27–17 · replay 31% for the winner
- Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State MTSU 31–24 · replay 32% for the winner