luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025

Wyoming at Hawai'i, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

Hawai'i beat Wyoming 27–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Hawai'i wins 9 of 10.

Before kickoff Hawai'i was a 71% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 8:58 left): Return touchdown by Wyoming, worth 15 points of win probability to Wyoming.

Final

Wyoming Cowboys 7
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors 27

November 29, 2025 · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · Closing line: Hawai'i −8.5

Luck index +11 Hawai'i about even · −11 Wyoming

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Wyoming wins 1, Hawai'i wins 9.

  1. 1 WYO 20 HAW 14
  2. 2 WYO 14 HAW 17
  3. 3 WYO 24 HAW 31
  4. 4 WYO 7 HAW 17
  5. 5 WYO 0 HAW 13
  6. 6 WYO 14 HAW 30
  7. 7 WYO 3 HAW 22
  8. 8 WYO 12 HAW 35
  9. 9 WYO 10 HAW 38
  10. 10 WYO 5 HAW 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Wyoming wins 11% of them, Hawai'i 89%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Hawai'i by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Wyoming by 17+0.4%
Wyoming by 9–163.2%
Wyoming by 1–86.5%
Level after regulation0.7%
Hawai'i by 1–817.3%
Hawai'i by 9–1620.3%
Hawai'i by 17+51.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.3 points to Hawai'i: the final margin was Hawai'i by 20, without the luck Hawai'i by 12.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • K. Matsuzawa, 47 yds made · 63% expected
  • K. Matsuzawa, 47 yds made · 63% expected
  • E. Sandvik, 30 yds missed · 85% expected
  • K. Matsuzawa, 30 yds missed · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Wyoming 5 for 35 yards, Hawai'i 9 for 95 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:08 Face Mask on Hawai'i, 15 yards +3% WYO +1.6 pts
Q1 10:00 False Start on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WYO +0.9 pts
Q1 0:48 False Start on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HAW +0.6 pts
Q2 14:14 Holding on Hawai'i, 10 yards +3% WYO +1.3 pts
Q2 1:52 Roughing the Passer on Hawai'i, 14 yards +1% WYO +0.8 pts
Q2 1:43 Holding on Wyoming, 10 yards 0% HAW +0.7 pts
Q2 1:24 False Start on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HAW +0.6 pts
Q3 14:25 Holding on Hawai'i, 10 yards +2% WYO +1.8 pts
Q3 5:28 False Start on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WYO +0.6 pts
Q4 13:30 False Start on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HAW +0.5 pts
Q4 13:17 Holding on Hawai'i, 10 yards 0% WYO +0.9 pts
Q4 11:01 Holding on Wyoming, 10 yards 0% HAW +0.6 pts
Q4 9:01 Personal Foul on Hawai'i, 11 yards 0% WYO +0.7 pts
Q4 5:26 Roughing the Passer on Hawai'i, 15 yards 0% WYO +1.7 pts

When it happened

Hawai'i’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Hawai'i was ahead in it, below while Wyoming was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:08 Face Mask on Hawai'i, 15 yardsJudgment calls +3% WYO WYO: Punt
2 Q1 8:58 Return touchdown by WyomingSpecial teams +15% WYO WYO: Punt
3 Q1 7:33 Hawai'i converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +6% HAW HAW: Touchdown
4 Q1 1:21 Wyoming converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +4% WYO WYO: Punt
5 Q2 14:14 Holding on Hawai'i, 10 yardsJudgment calls +3% WYO WYO: Punt
6 Q2 7:37 Hawai'i was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +3% WYO HAW: Field goal
7 Q2 0:20 E. Sandvik missed a 30-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +4% HAW WYO: Turnover on downs
8 Q3 12:11 Hawai'i converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +3% HAW HAW: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Wyoming 2% · Hawai'i 98%

Final margin
Hawai'i by 20
Luck in points
7.3 for Hawai'i
Luck-adjusted margin
Hawai'i by 12.7
Replay with same day's form
Wyoming 11% · Hawai'i 89% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Wyoming · Hawai'i

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