Week 14 2025 · November 28, 2025
Air Force at Colorado State, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Air Force beat Colorado State 42–21, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff Air Force was a 56% favorite.
Final
 Air Force Falcons | 42 |
|---|---|
 Colorado State Rams | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Air Force lucky · −29 Colorado State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Air Force wins 7, Colorado State wins 3.
- 1 AF 34 CSU 3
- 2 AF 42 CSU 21
- 3 AF 28 CSU 13
- 4 AF 28 CSU 17
- 5 AF 21 CSU 13
- 6 AF 30 CSU 24
- 7 AF 24 CSU 21
- 8 AF 17 CSU 20
- 9 AF 3 CSU 7
- 10 AF 20 CSU 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Air Force wins 71% of them, Colorado State 29%, counting the 8% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Air Force by 21.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Air Force by 17+ | 23.2% |
| Air Force by 9–16 | 18.9% |
| Air Force by 1–8 | 25.0% |
| Level after regulation | 8.5% |
| Colorado State by 1–8 | 15.7% |
| Colorado State by 9–16 | 6.0% |
| Colorado State by 17+ | 2.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Air Force 0 for 0 yards, Colorado State 2 for 11 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 3:05 | Holding on Colorado State, 10 yards | +1% AF +0.6 pts |
| Q4 3:02 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Colorado State, 1 yard | 0% AF +0.1 pts |
When it happened
Colorado State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:14 | Air Force was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +3% CSU | AF: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 12:39 | Air Force converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +4% AF | AF: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 10:32 | Air Force was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +3% CSU | AF: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 9:50 | Air Force converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +6% AF | AF: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 9:55 | Colorado State converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +3% CSU | CSU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 11:19 | Colorado State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +4% CSU | CSU: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q3 9:41 | Air Force converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +3% AF | AF: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 2:08 | I. Hankins missed a 36-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him | +4% AF | CSU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Air Force 97% · Colorado State 3%
- Final margin
- Air Force by 21
- Luck in points
- 11.6 for Air Force
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Air Force by 9.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Air Force 71% · Colorado State 29% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Air Force · 
Colorado State
More from Week 14 2025
- San Diego State at New Mexico UNM 23–17 · replay 26% for the winner
- Boise State at Utah State BOIS 25–24 · replay 43% for the winner
- Fresno State at San José State FRES 41–14 · replay 84% for the winner
- Wyoming at Hawai'i HAW 27–7 · replay 89% for the winner
- UNLV at Nevada UNLV 42–17 · replay 98% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner
- Army at UTSA ARMY 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Marshall GASO 24–19 · replay 31% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Texas TEX 27–17 · replay 31% for the winner
- Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State MTSU 31–24 · replay 32% for the winner