Duke lucky 27 
Virginia unlucky 20 Long shot · Duke wins 14% of replays 2025 college football season · December 5, 2025–December 6, 2025
Week 15 2025: upsets, and who deserved to win
3 upsets in Week 15 2025. The biggest: Duke beat Virginia 27–20 as 41% underdogs, and got lucky. 3 of 9 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: Kennesaw State beat Jacksonville State 19–15 in a game it wins 39% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
Week 15 2025 upsets
Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 3 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form (our postgame win expectancy).
| Winner | Game | Before kickoff | Replay with same day’s form | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | 27–20 vs Virginia | 41% | 14% | Lucky |
 Indiana | 13–10 vs Ohio State | 41% | 68% | Deserved |
 Tulane | 34–21 vs North Texas | 46% | 18% | Lucky |
Every game, luck first
The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Duke lucky 27 Virginia unlucky 20 Long shot · Duke wins 14% of replays 
North Texas unlucky 21 Tulane lucky 34 Long shot · Tulane wins 18% of replays Tulane won on an off day 60% to win a fresh game, 18% with this day’s form: far below what the matchup promised. 
Kennesaw State lucky 19 
Jacksonville State unlucky 15 Replays favor loser · Kennesaw State wins 39% of replays Indiana 13 
Ohio State 10 Replays agree · Indiana wins 68% of replays 
Miami (OH) 13 
Western Michigan 23 Replays agree · Western Michigan wins 74% of replays 
Georgia 28 
Alabama 7 Replays agree · Georgia wins 82% of replays 
BYU 7 
Texas Tech 34 Replays agree · Texas Tech wins 84% of replays 
UNLV 21 
Boise State 38 Replays agree · Boise State wins 87% of replays 
Troy 14 
James Madison 31 Replays agree · James Madison wins 98% of replays Week 15 luck ranking
Every FBS team’s luck index: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duke | W 27–20 vs Virginia | 14% | +86 |
| 2 | Tulane | W 34–21 vs North Texas | 18% | +82 |
| 3 | Kennesaw State | W 19–15 @ Jacksonville State | 39% | +61 |
| 4 | Indiana | W 13–10 vs Ohio State | 68% | +32 |
| 5 | Western Michigan | W 23–13 vs Miami (OH) | 74% | +26 |
| 6 | Georgia | W 28–7 vs Alabama | 82% | +19 |
| 7 | Texas Tech | W 34–7 vs BYU | 84% | +16 |
| 8 | Boise State | W 38–21 vs UNLV | 87% | +13 |
| 9 | James Madison | W 31–14 vs Troy | 98% | +2 |
| 10 | Troy | L 14–31 @ James Madison | 2% | −2 |
| 11 | UNLV | L 21–38 @ Boise State | 13% | −13 |
| 12 | BYU | L 7–34 vs Texas Tech | 16% | −16 |
| 13 | Alabama | L 7–28 vs Georgia | 19% | −19 |
| 14 | Miami (OH) | L 13–23 vs Western Michigan | 26% | −26 |
| 15 | Ohio State | L 10–13 vs Indiana | 32% | −32 |
| 16 | Jacksonville State | L 15–19 vs Kennesaw State | 61% | −61 |
| 17 | North Texas | L 21–34 @ Tulane | 82% | −82 |
| 18 | Virginia | L 20–27 vs Duke | 86% | −86 |