Week 15 2025 · December 5, 2025
Troy at James Madison, Week 15 2025: who deserved to win?
James Madison beat Troy 31–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, James Madison wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff James Madison was a 94% favorite.
Final
 Troy Trojans | 14 |
|---|---|
 James Madison Dukes | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 James Madison about even · −2 Troy
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Troy wins 0, James Madison wins 10.
- 1 TROY 10 JMU 17
- 2 TROY 14 JMU 27
- 3 TROY 7 JMU 24
- 4 TROY 0 JMU 20
- 5 TROY 7 JMU 30
- 6 TROY 14 JMU 41
- 7 TROY 0 JMU 29
- 8 TROY 3 JMU 37
- 9 TROY 3 JMU 40
- 10 TROY 3 JMU 49
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Troy wins 2% of them, James Madison 98%. The line is what actually happened: James Madison by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Troy by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Troy by 9–16 | 0.4% |
| Troy by 1–8 | 1.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.4% |
| James Madison by 1–8 | 5.3% |
| James Madison by 9–16 | 8.9% |
| James Madison by 17+ | 83.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Suarez, 40 yds made · 72% expected
- S. Renfroe, 46 yds missed · 62% expected
Penalties: Troy 4 for 45 yards, James Madison 6 for 65 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:03 | False Start on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TROY +0.7 pts |
| Q1 6:01 | Holding on Troy, 10 yards | 0% JMU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 9:57 | Delay of Game on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TROY +0.6 pts |
| Q2 5:12 | Pass Interference on James Madison, 15 yards | +1% TROY +2.3 pts |
| Q2 1:14 | Kick Catch Interference on James Madison, 15 yards | +1% TROY +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:55 | Pass Interference on James Madison, 15 yards | +2% TROY +1.6 pts |
| Q2 0:47 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Troy, 15 yards | +1% JMU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 10:08 | Pass Interference on Troy, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +3% JMU +2.4 pts |
| Q4 9:59 | False Start on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JMU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 9:02 | Holding on James Madison, 10 yards | +6% TROY +1.6 pts |
When it happened
James Madison’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 10:08 | Pass Interference on Troy, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +3% JMU | JMU: Turnover |
| 2 | Q3 4:24 | S. Renfroe missed a 46-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 3 of 8 from 45+ before | +4% JMU | TROY: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 3:04 | James Madison fumbled and Troy recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% TROY | JMU: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q3 1:38 | Troy was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +3% JMU | TROY: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 13:31 | James Madison converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +5% JMU | JMU: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 12:04 | James Madison was stopped on 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +4% TROY | JMU: End of game |
| 7 | Q4 9:02 | Holding on James Madison, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +6% TROY | TROY: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 7:07 | Troy was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +4% JMU | TROY: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Troy 1% · James Madison 99%
- Final margin
- James Madison by 17
- Luck in points
- 3.6 for James Madison
- Luck-adjusted margin
- James Madison by 13.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Troy 2% · James Madison 98% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2025 games · 
Troy · 
James Madison
More from Week 15 2025
- Duke vs Virginia DUKE 27–20 · replay 14% for the winner
- North Texas at Tulane TULN 34–21 · replay 18% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State KENN 19–15 · replay 39% for the winner
- Indiana vs Ohio State IU 13–10 · replay 68% for the winner
- Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan WMU 23–13 · replay 74% for the winner
- Georgia vs Alabama UGA 28–7 · replay 82% for the winner
- BYU vs Texas Tech TTU 34–7 · replay 84% for the winner
- UNLV at Boise State BOIS 38–21 · replay 87% for the winner