luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 15 2025 · December 5, 2025

Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State, Week 15 2025: who deserved to win?

Kennesaw State beat Jacksonville State 19–15, but the replays lean toward Jacksonville State: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 9 points of win probability to Kennesaw State.

Before kickoff Kennesaw State was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:23 left): Chop Block on Kennesaw State, 15 yards, worth 11 points of win probability to Jacksonville State.

Final

Kennesaw State Owls 19
Jacksonville State Gamecocks 15

December 5, 2025 · AmFirst Stadium · Closing line: Kennesaw State −3

Luck index +61 Kennesaw State very lucky · −61 Jacksonville State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Kennesaw State wins 4, Jacksonville State wins 6.

  1. 1 KENN 20 JXST 0
  2. 2 KENN 27 JXST 14
  3. 3 KENN 16 JXST 10
  4. 4 KENN 17 JXST 14
  5. 5 KENN 14 JXST 16
  6. 6 KENN 14 JXST 20
  7. 7 KENN 20 JXST 28
  8. 8 KENN 17 JXST 30
  9. 9 KENN 7 JXST 24
  10. 10 KENN 14 JXST 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Kennesaw State wins 39% of them, Jacksonville State 61%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Kennesaw State by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Kennesaw State by 17+7.1%
Kennesaw State by 9–1610.5%
Kennesaw State by 1–817.1%
Level after regulation4.8%
Jacksonville State by 1–824.9%
Jacksonville State by 9–1618.1%
Jacksonville State by 17+17.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.3 points to Kennesaw State: the final margin was Kennesaw State by 4, without the luck Jacksonville State by 4.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • B. Williams, 38 yds made · 73% expected
  • G. Rippa, 35 yds missed · 81% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Kennesaw State 4 for 26 yards, Jacksonville State 4 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 14:08 Pass Interference on Jacksonville State, 15 yards +2% KENN +1.0 pts
Q2 11:56 False Start on Jacksonville State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KENN +0.7 pts
Q2 9:40 Pass Interference on Kennesaw State, 6 yards +1% JXST +0.3 pts
Q2 5:48 False Start on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JXST +0.7 pts
Q2 0:09 Intentional Grounding on Kennesaw State, 0 yards 0% JXST 0.0 pts
Q3 5:34 Holding on Jacksonville State, 10 yards +2% KENN +0.9 pts
Q4 3:56 Pass Interference on Jacksonville State, 15 yards +9% KENN +1.3 pts
Q4 3:23 Chop Block on Kennesaw State, 15 yards +11% JXST +1.3 pts

When it happened

Jacksonville State’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 82%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Jacksonville State was ahead in it, below while Kennesaw State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 10:15 Jacksonville State converted 3rd & 253rd & 4th downs · 12% expected +7% JXST JXST: Turnover on downs
2 Q4 7:14 Jacksonville State converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +10% JXST JXST: Touchdown
3 Q4 5:09 Jacksonville State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +8% JXST JXST: Touchdown
4 Q4 4:04 Jacksonville State’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +8% JXST JXST: Touchdown
5 Q4 3:56 Pass Interference on Jacksonville State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +9% KENN KENN: Touchdown
6 Q4 3:23 Chop Block on Kennesaw State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +11% JXST JXST: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:55 Kennesaw State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +9% KENN KENN: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:55 Kennesaw State converted 4th & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +10% JXST KENN: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Kennesaw State 25% · Jacksonville State 75%

Final margin
Kennesaw State by 4
Luck in points
8.3 for Kennesaw State
Luck-adjusted margin
Jacksonville State by 4.3
Replay with same day's form
Kennesaw State 39% · Jacksonville State 61% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2025 games · Kennesaw State · Jacksonville State

More from Week 15 2025

Every week 15 game, 2025