Week 15 2025 · December 6, 2025
Indiana vs Ohio State, Week 15 2025: who deserved to win?
Indiana beat Ohio State 13–10, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. Ohio State had the bounces: pre-snap flags alone were worth 16 points of win probability to Ohio State.
Before kickoff Ohio State was a 59% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:00 left): Ohio State converted 3rd & 8, worth 15 points of win probability to Ohio State.
Final
 Indiana Hoosiers | 13 |
|---|---|
 Ohio State Buckeyes | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +32 Indiana lucky · −32 Ohio State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Indiana wins 7, Ohio State wins 3.
- 1 IU 37 OSU 10
- 2 IU 20 OSU 0
- 3 IU 31 OSU 17
- 4 IU 17 OSU 7
- 5 IU 24 OSU 17
- 6 IU 22 OSU 17
- 7 IU 13 OSU 10
- 8 IU 24 OSU 27
- 9 IU 14 OSU 21
- 10 IU 7 OSU 21
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Indiana wins 68% of them, Ohio State 32%, counting the 8% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Indiana by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Indiana by 17+ | 17.8% |
| Indiana by 9–16 | 18.9% |
| Indiana by 1–8 | 23.0% |
| Level after regulation | 8.1% |
| Ohio State by 1–8 | 18.8% |
| Ohio State by 9–16 | 9.2% |
| Ohio State by 17+ | 4.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. Radicic, 29 yds made · 90% expected
- N. Radicic, 39 yds missed · 77% expected
- J. Fielding, 30 yds made · 89% expected
- N. Radicic, 32 yds made · 86% expected
- J. Fielding, 27 yds missed · 92% expected
Penalties: Indiana 5 for 49 yards, Ohio State 2 for 20 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 1:36 | Face Mask on Indiana, 9 yards | +3% OSU +1.3 pts |
| Q1 1:09 | Offside on Indiana, 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% OSU +1.0 pts |
| Q1 0:53 | False Start on Ohio State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +14% OSU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 0:46 | Pass Interference on Ohio State, 15 yards | 0% IU +1.3 pts |
| Q2 12:43 | Personal Foul on Indiana, 11 yards | +3% OSU +1.4 pts |
| Q2 9:28 | Holding on Indiana, 10 yards | +2% OSU +1.2 pts |
| Q4 4:33 | Personal Foul on Indiana, 15 yards | +12% OSU +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Ohio State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 77%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 0:53 | False Start on Ohio State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +14% OSU | IU: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q2 13:31 | N. Radicic missed a 39-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him | +6% OSU | IU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 1:37 | Ohio State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +7% IU | OSU: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q4 10:55 | Indiana was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +6% OSU | IU: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 8:02 | Ohio State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +8% OSU | OSU: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q4 6:00 | Ohio State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +15% OSU | OSU: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q4 4:33 | Personal Foul on Indiana, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +12% OSU | OSU: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q4 2:51 | Ohio State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +9% IU | OSU: Missed field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Indiana 36% · Ohio State 64%
- Final margin
- Indiana by 3
- Luck in points
- 5.0 for Indiana
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ohio State by 2.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Indiana 68% · Ohio State 32% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2025 games · 
Indiana · 
Ohio State
More from Week 15 2025
- Duke vs Virginia DUKE 27–20 · replay 14% for the winner
- North Texas at Tulane TULN 34–21 · replay 18% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State KENN 19–15 · replay 39% for the winner
- Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan WMU 23–13 · replay 74% for the winner
- Georgia vs Alabama UGA 28–7 · replay 82% for the winner
- BYU vs Texas Tech TTU 34–7 · replay 84% for the winner
- UNLV at Boise State BOIS 38–21 · replay 87% for the winner
- Troy at James Madison JMU 31–14 · replay 98% for the winner