luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 15 2025 · December 5, 2025

North Texas at Tulane, Week 15 2025: who deserved to win?

Tulane beat North Texas 34–21, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, North Texas wins 8 of 10. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 10 points of win probability to Tulane.

Tulane won on an off day: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against North Texas it would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 18%. The numbers

Before kickoff North Texas was a 54% favorite.

Final

North Texas Mean Green 21
Tulane Green Wave 34

December 5, 2025 · Yulman Stadium · Closing line: North Texas −1.5

Luck index +82 Tulane very lucky · −82 North Texas

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. North Texas wins 8, Tulane wins 2.

  1. 1 UNT 41 TULN 7
  2. 2 UNT 31 TULN 6
  3. 3 UNT 38 TULN 17
  4. 4 UNT 24 TULN 7
  5. 5 UNT 13 TULN 0
  6. 6 UNT 16 TULN 7
  7. 7 UNT 20 TULN 14
  8. 8 UNT 17 TULN 14
  9. 9 UNT 17 TULN 21
  10. 10 UNT 10 TULN 21

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

Tulane won on an off day

It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against North Texas it would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 18%.

42 points apart for Tulane: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
North Texas offenseEPA per play gained −0.13 +0.18 worse by 0.31
North Texas defenseEPA per play allowed +0.32 +0.13 worse by 0.19
Tulane offenseEPA per play gained +0.32 +0.18 better by 0.14
Tulane defenseEPA per play allowed −0.13 +0.08 better by 0.21

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

North Texas wins 82% of them, Tulane 18%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Tulane by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
North Texas by 17+33.4%
North Texas by 9–1621.8%
North Texas by 1–821.8%
Level after regulation6.1%
Tulane by 1–810.5%
Tulane by 9–164.8%
Tulane by 17+1.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.4 points to Tulane: the final margin was Tulane by 13, without the luck Tulane by 11.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • P. Durkin, 30 yds made · 89% expected
  • P. Durkin, 50 yds missed · 56% expected
  • P. Durkin, 30 yds made · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: North Texas 7 for 65 yards, Tulane 5 for 48 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:42 False Start on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TULN +1.4 pts
Q1 0:08 Pass Interference on Tulane, 15 yards +8% UNT +3.3 pts
Q2 12:27 False Start on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TULN +1.1 pts
Q2 11:50 Offside on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UNT +0.4 pts
Q2 1:54 Personal Foul on North Texas, 15 yards +4% TULN +1.6 pts
Q3 15:00 Unnecessary Roughness on Tulane, 12 yards +1% UNT +0.7 pts
Q3 8:40 Unnecessary Roughness on North Texas, 15 yards +1% TULN +0.9 pts
Q3 4:10 Pass Interference on Tulane, 11 yards +2% UNT +3.5 pts
Q3 3:58 Offside on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TULN +2.5 pts
Q3 0:26 False Start on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TULN +0.7 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TULN +0.1 pts
Q4 6:37 Pass Interference on North Texas, 15 yards +2% TULN +1.6 pts

When it happened

Tulane’s chance of winning

As low as 31% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Tulane was ahead in it, below while North Texas was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:46 North Texas converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +4% UNT UNT: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:18 North Texas converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +3% UNT UNT: Touchdown
3 Q1 0:30 Tulane converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +4% TULN TULN: Touchdown
4 Q1 0:08 Pass Interference on Tulane, 15 yardsJudgment calls +8% UNT UNT: Turnover
5 Q2 13:37 North Texas fumbled and Tulane recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% TULN UNT: Punt
6 Q2 2:55 North Texas was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +3% TULN UNT: Punt
7 Q2 1:54 Personal Foul on North Texas, 15 yardsJudgment calls +4% TULN TULN: Touchdown
8 Q2 1:02 Tulane was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedTulane was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedTulane fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Tulane fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% TULN TULN: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

North Texas 5% · Tulane 95%

Final margin
Tulane by 13
Luck in points
1.4 for Tulane
Luck-adjusted margin
Tulane by 11.6
Replay with same day's form
North Texas 82% · Tulane 18% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2025 games · North Texas · Tulane

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