Week 15 2025 · December 6, 2025
Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan, Week 15 2025: who deserved to win?
Western Michigan beat Miami (OH) 23–13, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff Western Michigan was a 56% favorite.
Final
 Miami (OH) RedHawks | 13 |
|---|---|
 Western Michigan Broncos | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Western Michigan lucky · −26 Miami (OH)
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Miami (OH) wins 3, Western Michigan wins 7.
- 1 M-OH 38 WMU 23
- 2 M-OH 17 WMU 10
- 3 M-OH 24 WMU 21
- 4 M-OH 14 WMU 17
- 5 M-OH 10 WMU 17
- 6 M-OH 10 WMU 21
- 7 M-OH 17 WMU 31
- 8 M-OH 10 WMU 28
- 9 M-OH 10 WMU 34
- 10 M-OH 6 WMU 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Miami (OH) wins 26% of them, Western Michigan 74%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Western Michigan by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Miami (OH) by 17+ | 3.8% |
| Miami (OH) by 9–16 | 6.9% |
| Miami (OH) by 1–8 | 15.0% |
| Level after regulation | 1.4% |
| Western Michigan by 1–8 | 19.6% |
| Western Michigan by 9–16 | 22.6% |
| Western Michigan by 17+ | 30.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- P. Domschke, 27 yds made · 86% expected
- P. Domschke, 31 yds made · 82% expected
- P. Domschke, 50 yds made · 51% expected
- D. Dzioban, 59 yds missed · 45% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Miami (OH) 4 for 50 yards, Western Michigan 4 for 37 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:27 | Roughing the Passer on Western Michigan, 15 yards | +3% M-OH +1.6 pts |
| Q1 11:45 | Roughing the Passer on Western Michigan, 2 yards | +4% M-OH +2.0 pts |
| Q1 11:06 | Offside on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% WMU +0.9 pts |
| Q1 3:51 | Pass Interference on Miami (OH), 15 yards | +5% WMU +2.5 pts |
| Q1 2:32 | Pass Interference on Miami (OH), 15 yards | +1% WMU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 6:36 | Pass Interference on Miami (OH), 15 yards | +4% WMU +2.0 pts |
| Q4 13:36 | Pass Interference on Western Michigan, 15 yards | +1% M-OH +2.4 pts |
| Q4 11:20 | False Start on Western Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WMU +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Western Michigan’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:45 | Roughing the Passer on Western Michigan, 2 yardsJudgment calls | +4% M-OH | M-OH: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 8:31 | Western Michigan converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +4% WMU | WMU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 7:20 | Western Michigan fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% WMU | WMU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 3:51 | Pass Interference on Miami (OH), 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% WMU | WMU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 6:36 | Pass Interference on Miami (OH), 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% WMU | WMU: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 5:10 | Western Michigan converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +4% WMU | WMU: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 1:57 | Miami (OH) fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% M-OH | M-OH: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 6:23 | Western Michigan was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +4% M-OH | WMU: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Miami (OH) 20% · Western Michigan 80%
- Final margin
- Western Michigan by 10
- Luck in points
- 3.3 for Western Michigan
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Western Michigan by 6.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Miami (OH) 26% · Western Michigan 74% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2025 games · 
Miami (OH) · 
Western Michigan
More from Week 15 2025
- Duke vs Virginia DUKE 27–20 · replay 14% for the winner
- North Texas at Tulane TULN 34–21 · replay 18% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State KENN 19–15 · replay 39% for the winner
- Indiana vs Ohio State IU 13–10 · replay 68% for the winner
- Georgia vs Alabama UGA 28–7 · replay 82% for the winner
- BYU vs Texas Tech TTU 34–7 · replay 84% for the winner
- UNLV at Boise State BOIS 38–21 · replay 87% for the winner
- Troy at James Madison JMU 31–14 · replay 98% for the winner