Week 15 2025 · December 6, 2025
BYU vs Texas Tech, Week 15 2025: who deserved to win?
Texas Tech beat BYU 34–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas Tech wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Texas Tech was a 79% favorite.
Final
 BYU Cougars | 7 |
|---|---|
 Texas Tech Red Raiders | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 Texas Tech about even · −16 BYU
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. BYU wins 2, Texas Tech wins 8.
- 1 BYU 17 TTU 5
- 2 BYU 10 TTU 6
- 3 BYU 17 TTU 20
- 4 BYU 3 TTU 10
- 5 BYU 7 TTU 17
- 6 BYU 14 TTU 27
- 7 BYU 3 TTU 20
- 8 BYU 0 TTU 19
- 9 BYU 3 TTU 26
- 10 BYU 6 TTU 36
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
BYU wins 16% of them, Texas Tech 84%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texas Tech by 27.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| BYU by 17+ | 1.6% |
| BYU by 9–16 | 3.7% |
| BYU by 1–8 | 8.8% |
| Level after regulation | 2.4% |
| Texas Tech by 1–8 | 19.6% |
| Texas Tech by 9–16 | 22.5% |
| Texas Tech by 17+ | 41.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Harrington, 23 yds made · 96% expected
- S. Harrington, 48 yds missed · 61% expected
- S. Harrington, 40 yds made · 75% expected
- W. Ferrin, 46 yds missed · 66% expected
- S. Harrington, 44 yds made · 68% expected
- S. Harrington, 49 yds missed · 59% expected
- S. Harrington, 28 yds made · 91% expected
Penalties: BYU 4 for 30 yards, Texas Tech 5 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:55 | False Start on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BYU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 1:49 | False Start on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BYU +0.4 pts |
| Q1 0:43 | False Start on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BYU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 8:32 | False Start on BYU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TTU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 6:51 | Offside on BYU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TTU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 13:11 | False Start on BYU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TTU +1.1 pts |
| Q3 7:14 | False Start on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BYU +0.3 pts |
| Q4 14:50 | Pass Interference on Texas Tech, 15 yards | +2% TTU +5.1 pts |
| Q4 6:05 | Pass Interference on BYU, 15 yards | 0% TTU +1.3 pts |
When it happened
Texas Tech’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:04 | BYU converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +3% BYU | BYU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 4:15 | Texas Tech converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +5% TTU | TTU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 2:58 | Texas Tech converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +3% TTU | TTU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 4:51 | S. Harrington missed a 48-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 6 of 8 from 45+ before | +4% BYU | TTU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 12:55 | BYU converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +5% BYU | BYU: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q3 10:56 | BYU converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +5% BYU | BYU: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q3 9:29 | W. Ferrin missed a 46-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 14 of 22 from 45+ before | +5% TTU | BYU: Turnover |
| 8 | Q3 4:58 | Texas Tech was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +4% BYU | TTU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
BYU 0% · Texas Tech 100%
- Final margin
- Texas Tech by 27
- Luck in points
- 1.1 for Texas Tech
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas Tech by 25.9
- Replay with same day's form
- BYU 16% · Texas Tech 84% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2025 games · 
BYU · 
Texas Tech
More from Week 15 2025
- Duke vs Virginia DUKE 27–20 · replay 14% for the winner
- North Texas at Tulane TULN 34–21 · replay 18% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State KENN 19–15 · replay 39% for the winner
- Indiana vs Ohio State IU 13–10 · replay 68% for the winner
- Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan WMU 23–13 · replay 74% for the winner
- Georgia vs Alabama UGA 28–7 · replay 82% for the winner
- UNLV at Boise State BOIS 38–21 · replay 87% for the winner
- Troy at James Madison JMU 31–14 · replay 98% for the winner