luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025

Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

Jacksonville State beat Western Kentucky 37–34, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Jacksonville State wins 4 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 12 points of win probability to Jacksonville State.

Before kickoff Western Kentucky was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:52 left): Jacksonville State converted 3rd & 15, worth 19 points of win probability to Jacksonville State.

Final

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 34
Jacksonville State Gamecocks 37

November 29, 2025 · AmFirst Stadium · Closing line: Western Kentucky −1.5

Luck index +56 Jacksonville State lucky · −56 Western Kentucky

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Western Kentucky wins 6, Jacksonville State wins 4.

  1. 1 WKU 45 JXST 14
  2. 2 WKU 41 JXST 21
  3. 3 WKU 31 JXST 16
  4. 4 WKU 23 JXST 13
  5. 5 WKU 27 JXST 21
  6. 6 WKU 28 JXST 26
  7. 7 WKU 34 JXST 37
  8. 8 WKU 28 JXST 37
  9. 9 WKU 31 JXST 45
  10. 10 WKU 28 JXST 51

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Western Kentucky wins 56% of them, Jacksonville State 44%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jacksonville State by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Western Kentucky by 17+20.1%
Western Kentucky by 9–1616.4%
Western Kentucky by 1–818.9%
Level after regulation2.3%
Jacksonville State by 1–820.0%
Jacksonville State by 9–1611.5%
Jacksonville State by 17+10.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.7 points to Western Kentucky: the final margin was Jacksonville State by 3, without the luck Jacksonville State by 5.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • G. Rippa, 27 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Cannon, 42 yds made · 69% expected
  • G. Rippa, 27 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Cassidy, 41 yds made · 72% expected
  • G. Rippa, 28 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Western Kentucky 6 for 63 yards, Jacksonville State 6 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:43 Roughing the Passer on Jacksonville State, 15 yards +3% WKU +1.6 pts
Q2 6:30 Face Mask on Western Kentucky, 3 yards +2% JXST +0.9 pts
Q2 4:02 Pass Interference on Jacksonville State, 15 yards +3% WKU +1.4 pts
Q2 1:52 False Start on Jacksonville State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WKU +0.2 pts
Q2 0:28 Pass Interference on Western Kentucky, 15 yards 0% JXST +0.5 pts
Q3 6:45 Roughing the Passer on Western Kentucky, 15 yards +2% JXST +0.6 pts
Q3 6:41 Holding on Jacksonville State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% WKU +3.0 pts
Q3 5:13 False Start on Jacksonville State, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% WKU +0.8 pts
Q3 1:28 Illegal Formation on Western Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JXST +0.3 pts
Q4 13:41 Face Mask on Western Kentucky, 15 yards +7% JXST +1.6 pts
Q4 10:08 Holding on Western Kentucky, 10 yards +17% JXST +1.4 pts
Q4 3:06 False Start on Jacksonville State, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% WKU +0.4 pts

When it happened

Jacksonville State’s chance of winning

As low as 16% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Jacksonville State was ahead in it, below while Western Kentucky was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 6:41 Holding on Jacksonville State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% WKU WKU: Punt
2 Q3 4:13 Jacksonville State was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +7% WKU JXST: Field goal
3 Q4 12:21 Western Kentucky fumbled and Jacksonville State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% JXST WKU: End of game
4 Q4 10:08 Holding on Western Kentucky, 10 yardsJudgment calls +17% JXST JXST: Punt
5 Q4 6:08 Jacksonville State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +9% WKU JXST: Punt
6 Q4 4:49 Western Kentucky was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +7% JXST WKU: Punt
7 Q4 2:52 Jacksonville State converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +19% JXST JXST: Field goal
8 Q4 1:48 Jacksonville State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +10% JXST JXST: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Western Kentucky 17% · Jacksonville State 83%

Final margin
Jacksonville State by 3
Luck in points
2.7 for Western Kentucky
Luck-adjusted margin
Jacksonville State by 5.7
Replay with same day's form
Western Kentucky 56% · Jacksonville State 44% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Western Kentucky · Jacksonville State

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