MAC · 2026 season, in progress
Ohio Bobcats: luck and expected wins
Ohio is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 50th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–1.
2026, game by game
How often Ohio wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Nebraska | L 21–49 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 2 | vs Jacksonville State | W 29–27 | 27% | +73 |
| Week 3 | @ South Alabama | L 36–41 | 38% | −38 |
| Week 4 | vs Stonehill | W 35–7 | 100% | 0 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Ohio win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | at Kent State |  Ohio by 10.0 | 74% |
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | vs Central Michigan | Ohio by 11.2 | 76% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | at Sacramento State | Ohio by 14.1 | 81% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | vs Eastern Michigan | Ohio by 14.8 | 82% |
| Week 10 · Nov 3 | at Akron | Ohio by 8.0 | 68% |
| Week 11 · Nov 10 | at Miami (OH) |  Miami (OH) by 3.8 | 41% |
| Week 12 · Nov 17 | vs Ball State | Ohio by 16.8 | 84% |
| Week 13 · Nov 27 | vs Toledo |  Toledo by 8.8 | 30% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Ohio’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.05 | −1.7 |
| Kicks | −0.45 | −2.2 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Ohio takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Week 2 | vs Jacksonville State | W 29–27 | 27% | +73 |
| 2025 Week 11 | vs Miami (OH) | W 24–20 | 60% | +40 |
| 2025 Week 5 | vs Bowling Green | W 35–20 | 62% | +38 |
| 2025 Week 14 | @ Buffalo | W 31–26 | 63% | +37 |
| 2025 Week 9 | @ Eastern Michigan | W 28–21 | 77% | +23 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Ohio would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 6 | @ Ball State | L 14–20 | 62% | −62 |
| 2026 Week 3 | @ South Alabama | L 36–41 | 38% | −38 |
| 2025 Week 1 | @ Rutgers | L 31–34 | 26% | −26 |
| 2025 Week 12 | @ Western Michigan | L 13–17 | 17% | −17 |
| 2026 Week 1 | @ Nebraska | L 21–49 | 7% | −7 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8–4 | 7.5 | +0.5 | 4–3 | 1–0 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Rutgers | L 31–34 | 26% | −26 |
| Week 2 | vs West Virginia | W 17–10 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 3 | @ Ohio State | L 9–37 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 4 | vs Gardner-Webb | W 52–35 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 5 | vs Bowling Green | W 35–20 | 62% | +38 |
| Week 6 | @ Ball State | L 14–20 | 62% | −62 |
| Week 8 | vs Northern Illinois | W 48–21 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 9 | @ Eastern Michigan | W 28–21 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 11 | vs Miami (OH) | W 24–20 | 60% | +40 |
| Week 12 | @ Western Michigan | L 13–17 | 17% | −17 |
| Week 13 | vs Massachusetts | W 42–14 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 14 | @ Buffalo | W 31–26 | 63% | +37 |
| Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl | vs UNLV | W 17–10 | 80% | +20 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- MAC teams by luck
- MAC:
Akron, 
Ball State, 
Bowling Green, 
Buffalo, 
Central Michigan, 
Eastern Michigan, 
Kent State, 
Massachusetts, Miami (OH), 
Sacramento State, Toledo, 
Western Michigan
How many wins does Ohio have in 2026?
2–2 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 1.7 wins.
Was Ohio lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Neither: about as lucky as the average team so far: +0.3 wins of luck, the 50th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Ohio’s luckiest season?
2025: 8–4 from play worth 7.5 wins, +0.5 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 2–2 from play worth 1.7 (+0.3).