Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
Stonehill at Ohio, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
Ohio beat Stonehill 35–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Ohio wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Ohio was a 98% favorite.
Final
 Stonehill Skyhawks | 7 |
|---|---|
 Ohio Bobcats | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Ohio about even · 0 Stonehill
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Stonehill wins 0, Ohio wins 10.
- 1 STO 17 OHIO 41
- 2 STO 10 OHIO 41
- 3 STO 0 OHIO 35
- 4 STO 7 OHIO 45
- 5 STO 7 OHIO 48
- 6 STO 0 OHIO 44
- 7 STO 0 OHIO 48
- 8 STO 13 OHIO 63
- 9 STO 0 OHIO 55
- 10 STO 3 OHIO 63
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Stonehill wins 0% of them, Ohio 100%. The line is what actually happened: Ohio by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Stonehill by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Stonehill by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Stonehill by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Ohio by 1–8 | 0.7% |
| Ohio by 9–16 | 2.5% |
| Ohio by 17+ | 96.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
Penalties: Stonehill 1 for 10 yards, Ohio 5 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | False Start on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% STO +0.8 pts |
| Q1 9:21 | Holding on Ohio, 10 yards | 0% STO +0.6 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Holding on Stonehill, 10 yards | 0% OHIO +1.2 pts |
| Q3 4:27 | Pass Interference on Ohio, 15 yards | 0% STO +0.8 pts |
| Q3 4:27 | Holding on Ohio, 10 yards | 0% STO +1.3 pts |
| Q4 5:13 | Ineligible Downfield on Ohio, 5 yards, wiping out the play | 0% STO +1.7 pts |
When it happened
Ohio’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 15:00 | Ohio was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedFalse Start on Ohio, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% STO | OHIO: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 10:45 | Ohio was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expectedStonehill was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +1% STO | OHIO: End of half |
| 3 | Q2 8:15 | Stonehill was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +0% STO | STO: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 6:31 | Ohio converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expectedOhio converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +0% OHIO | OHIO: End of half |
| 5 | Q3 15:00 | Stonehill was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedHolding on Stonehill, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +1% OHIO | STO: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 13:17 | Ohio was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +1% STO | OHIO: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 11:47 | Stonehill was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +0% OHIO | STO: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 10:14 | Ohio converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +0% OHIO | OHIO: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Stonehill 0% · Ohio 100%
- Final margin
- Ohio by 28
- Luck in points
- 5.4 for Ohio
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ohio by 22.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Stonehill 0% · Ohio 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Stonehill · 
Ohio
More from Week 4 2026
- Robert Morris at Buffalo BUF 31–28 · replay 63% for the winner
- South Florida at Bowling Green USF 14–6 · replay 68% for the winner
- UNLV at Akron UNLV 38–10 · replay 71% for the winner
- Long Island University at Florida International FIU 20–3 · replay 72% for the winner
- UConn at Miami (OH) M-OH 24–21 · replay 83% for the winner
- Ball State at Kent State KENT 26–13 · replay 90% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Sacramento State MASS 35–6 · replay 94% for the winner
- Boise State at Western Michigan BOIS 32–7 · replay 97% for the winner
- Lindenwood at Eastern Michigan EMU 29–3 · replay 98% for the winner
- San Diego State at Toledo TOL 41–16 · replay 99% for the winner
- Mercyhurst at Western Kentucky WKU 52–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Central Michigan at Miami MIA 52–3 · replay 100% for the winner