luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026

Ball State at Kent State, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?

Kent State beat Ball State 26–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Kent State wins 9 of 10.

Before kickoff Kent State was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:14 left): Kent State converted 4th & 12, worth 9 points of win probability to Kent State.

Final

Ball State Cardinals 13
Kent State Golden Flashes 26

September 26, 2026 · Dix Stadium · Closing line: Kent State −2.5

Luck index +10 Kent State about even · −10 Ball State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ball State wins 1, Kent State wins 9.

  1. 1 BALL 17 KENT 10
  2. 2 BALL 16 KENT 19
  3. 3 BALL 21 KENT 26
  4. 4 BALL 7 KENT 16
  5. 5 BALL 2 KENT 14
  6. 6 BALL 10 KENT 24
  7. 7 BALL 0 KENT 17
  8. 8 BALL 0 KENT 19
  9. 9 BALL 10 KENT 34
  10. 10 BALL 0 KENT 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ball State wins 10% of them, Kent State 90%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Kent State by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ball State by 17+0.6%
Ball State by 9–162.7%
Ball State by 1–86.5%
Level after regulation1.5%
Kent State by 1–821.4%
Kent State by 9–1621.2%
Kent State by 17+46.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.0 points to Kent State: the final margin was Kent State by 13, without the luck Kent State by 7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Ball State 7 for 60 yards, Kent State 13 for 114 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:15 Holding on Ball State, 9 yards +1% KENT +0.6 pts
Q1 2:44 Pass Interference on Kent State, 15 yards +1% BALL +0.3 pts
Q2 13:29 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Ball State, 15 yards +2% KENT +0.9 pts
Q2 11:47 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Kent State, 21 yards +2% BALL +1.3 pts
Q2 9:27 Chop Block on Kent State, 9 yards +1% BALL +0.6 pts
Q2 7:44 Offside on Ball State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KENT +0.6 pts
Q2 7:25 Unnecessary Roughness on Ball State, 15 yards +1% KENT +0.7 pts
Q2 6:42 Illegal Snap on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BALL +0.8 pts
Q2 6:31 Offside on Ball State, 3 yards · pre-snap 0% KENT +0.2 pts
Q2 2:17 Pass Interference on Kent State, 6 yards +1% BALL +0.9 pts
Q2 1:32 Holding on Kent State, 10 yards +1% BALL +0.8 pts
Q2 0:21 False Start on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BALL +0.8 pts
Q2 0:03 False Start on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BALL +0.1 pts
Q3 11:46 Holding on Kent State, 3 yards 0% BALL +0.2 pts
Q3 4:13 False Start on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BALL +0.7 pts
Q3 2:34 Holding on Kent State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% BALL +1.3 pts
Q4 12:58 Illegal Substitution on Ball State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KENT +0.4 pts
Q4 9:44 Holding on Ball State, 8 yards 0% KENT +0.5 pts
Q4 6:09 Kick Catch Interference on Kent State, 15 yards 0% BALL +0.9 pts
Q4 1:10 Delay of Game on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BALL +0.3 pts

When it happened

Kent State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Kent State was ahead in it, below while Ball State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:03 Ball State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +3% BALL BALL: End of half
2 Q2 13:56 Ball State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +6% BALL BALL: End of half
3 Q2 10:28 Kent State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +4% KENT KENT: Touchdown
4 Q2 8:14 Kent State converted 4th & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +9% KENT KENT: Touchdown
5 Q3 8:12 Ball State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +3% BALL BALL: Touchdown
6 Q3 6:45 Ball State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +3% BALL BALL: Punt
7 Q3 3:55 Kent State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +4% KENT KENT: Punt
8 Q4 13:12 Kent State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +3% KENT KENT: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ball State 14% · Kent State 86%

Final margin
Kent State by 13
Luck in points
6.0 for Kent State
Luck-adjusted margin
Kent State by 7.0
Replay with same day's form
Ball State 10% · Kent State 90% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · Ball State · Kent State

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