Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
UNLV at Akron, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
UNLV beat Akron 38–10, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff UNLV was an 81% favorite.
Final
 UNLV Rebels | 38 |
|---|---|
 Akron Zips | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 UNLV lucky · −29 Akron
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UNLV wins 7, Akron wins 3.
- 1 UNLV 49 AKR 17
- 2 UNLV 34 AKR 10
- 3 UNLV 27 AKR 7
- 4 UNLV 35 AKR 21
- 5 UNLV 19 AKR 9
- 6 UNLV 45 AKR 38
- 7 UNLV 30 AKR 27
- 8 UNLV 14 AKR 17
- 9 UNLV 21 AKR 28
- 10 UNLV 28 AKR 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UNLV wins 71% of them, Akron 29%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UNLV by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UNLV by 17+ | 28.6% |
| UNLV by 9–16 | 18.3% |
| UNLV by 1–8 | 21.1% |
| Level after regulation | 5.7% |
| Akron by 1–8 | 14.0% |
| Akron by 9–16 | 7.4% |
| Akron by 17+ | 5.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- A. Stire, 36 yds made · 79% expected
- R. Villela, 38 yds made · 75% expected
- M. Schramm, 44 yds missed · 67% expected
Penalties: UNLV 6 for 70 yards, Akron 2 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:52 | Roughing the Passer on UNLV, 15 yards | 0% AKR +0.2 pts |
| Q1 13:42 | Face Mask on UNLV, 15 yards | +3% AKR +1.6 pts |
| Q2 4:15 | Personal Foul on UNLV, 15 yards | +3% AKR +1.6 pts |
| Q2 3:58 | Holding on Akron, 10 yards | +3% UNLV +1.6 pts |
| Q4 14:18 | False Start on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% AKR +1.1 pts |
| Q4 12:13 | Pass Interference on Akron, 15 yards | 0% UNLV +1.3 pts |
| Q4 9:32 | False Start on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% AKR +0.8 pts |
| Q4 8:47 | Personal Foul on UNLV, 15 yards | 0% UNLV +2.1 pts |
When it happened
Akron’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:42 | Face Mask on UNLV, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% AKR | AKR: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 8:11 | UNLV converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +2% UNLV | UNLV: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 7:19 | Akron converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +4% AKR | AKR: Turnover |
| 4 | Q2 12:19 | Akron was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +7% UNLV | AKR: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 9:41 | UNLV converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +3% UNLV | UNLV: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 4:15 | Personal Foul on UNLV, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% AKR | AKR: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 3:58 | Holding on Akron, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% UNLV | UNLV: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 15:00 | UNLV converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +3% UNLV | UNLV: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UNLV 100% · Akron 0%
- Final margin
- UNLV by 28
- Luck in points
- 5.6 for UNLV
- Luck-adjusted margin
- UNLV by 22.4
- Replay with same day's form
- UNLV 71% · Akron 29% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
UNLV · 
Akron
More from Week 4 2026
- Air Force at Nevada AF 36–33 · replay 46% for the winner
- Robert Morris at Buffalo BUF 31–28 · replay 63% for the winner
- South Florida at Bowling Green USF 14–6 · replay 68% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Georgia State GAST 35–14 · replay 80% for the winner
- UConn at Miami (OH) M-OH 24–21 · replay 83% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Wyoming WYO 27–10 · replay 83% for the winner
- Ball State at Kent State KENT 26–13 · replay 90% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Sacramento State MASS 35–6 · replay 94% for the winner
- New Mexico at New Mexico State UNM 42–18 · replay 95% for the winner
- Boise State at Western Michigan BOIS 32–7 · replay 97% for the winner
- Lindenwood at Eastern Michigan EMU 29–3 · replay 98% for the winner
- San Diego State at Toledo TOL 41–16 · replay 99% for the winner