Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
Hawai'i at Wyoming, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
Wyoming beat Hawai'i 27–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Wyoming wins 8 of 10.
An off day for Hawai'i: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Wyoming it would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%. The numbers
Before kickoff Hawai'i was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 5:46 left): Hawai'i was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 15 points of win probability to Wyoming.
Final
 Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 10 |
|---|---|
 Wyoming Cowboys | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Wyoming about even · −17 Hawai'i
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Hawai'i wins 2, Wyoming wins 8.
- 1 HAW 27 WYO 13
- 2 HAW 17 WYO 13
- 3 HAW 28 WYO 31
- 4 HAW 10 WYO 16
- 5 HAW 17 WYO 27
- 6 HAW 7 WYO 21
- 7 HAW 7 WYO 24
- 8 HAW 13 WYO 35
- 9 HAW 7 WYO 34
- 10 HAW 0 WYO 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Hawai'i
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Wyoming it would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
38 points apart for Hawai'i: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hawai'i offenseEPA per play gained | +0.02 | +0.11 | worse by 0.09 |
| Hawai'i defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.16 | +0.05 | worse by 0.10 |
| Wyoming offenseEPA per play gained | +0.16 | +0.00 | better by 0.16 |
| Wyoming defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.06 | better by 0.04 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Hawai'i wins 17% of them, Wyoming 83%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Wyoming by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Hawai'i by 17+ | 2.4% |
| Hawai'i by 9–16 | 4.9% |
| Hawai'i by 1–8 | 9.2% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Wyoming by 1–8 | 21.4% |
| Wyoming by 9–16 | 19.7% |
| Wyoming by 17+ | 40.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- E. Sandvik, 28 yds made · 87% expected
- S. Olvera-Harle, 28 yds made · 89% expected
- E. Sandvik, 23 yds made · 91% expected
- S. Olvera-Harle, 54 yds missed · 47% expected
Penalties: Hawai'i 6 for 50 yards, Wyoming 6 for 47 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:47 | False Start on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WYO +0.5 pts |
| Q1 0:29 | Holding on Wyoming, 10 yards | +1% HAW +0.6 pts |
| Q1 0:00 | Holding on Hawai'i, 8 yards | +1% WYO +0.5 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Pass Interference on Wyoming, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +9% HAW +3.6 pts |
| Q2 9:57 | Holding on Hawai'i, 7 yards | +1% WYO +0.4 pts |
| Q3 3:45 | Holding on Wyoming, 7 yards, wiping out the play | +3% HAW +1.5 pts |
| Q3 3:45 | Targeting on Hawai'i, 15 yards | +3% WYO +1.6 pts |
| Q3 0:00 | Illegal Formation on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap | +12% WYO +6.2 pts |
| Q4 12:11 | Intentional Grounding on Wyoming, 0 yards | +5% HAW +3.2 pts |
| Q4 7:47 | Holding on Wyoming, 10 yards | +1% HAW +0.6 pts |
| Q4 7:47 | Holding on Hawai'i, 10 yards | +3% WYO +1.0 pts |
| Q4 1:46 | Pass Interference on Wyoming, 10 yards | 0% HAW +0.8 pts |
When it happened
Wyoming’s chance of winning
As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:47 | Hawai'i was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedFalse Start on Hawai'i, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +3% WYO | HAW: End of half |
| 2 | Q1 5:23 | Wyoming converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedWyoming was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +6% WYO | WYO: End of half |
| 3 | Q3 15:00 | Hawai'i converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedHawai'i converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +7% HAW | HAW: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q3 9:19 | Hawai'i converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedHawai'i was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +3% WYO | HAW: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q3 5:46 | Hawai'i was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedWyoming was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +15% WYO | HAW: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 3:45 | Wyoming converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedWyoming converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedHolding on Wyoming, 7 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsTargeting on Hawai'i, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +7% WYO | WYO: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 0:00 | Illegal Formation on Hawai'i, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +12% WYO | WYO: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 7:47 | Hawai'i was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedHawai'i converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expectedHawai'i was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedHolding on Wyoming, 10 yardsJudgment callsHolding on Hawai'i, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +5% WYO | HAW: Missed field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Hawai'i 56% · Wyoming 44%
- Final margin
- Wyoming by 17
- Luck in points
- 18.4 for Wyoming
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Hawai'i by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Hawai'i 17% · Wyoming 83% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Hawai'i · 
Wyoming
More from Week 4 2026
- Air Force at Nevada AF 36–33 · replay 46% for the winner
- UNLV at Akron UNLV 38–10 · replay 71% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Georgia State GAST 35–14 · replay 80% for the winner
- New Mexico at New Mexico State UNM 42–18 · replay 95% for the winner
- Oregon State at UTEP ORST 33–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Army at Temple ARMY 21–17 · replay 9% for the winner
- Iowa at Michigan IOWA 20–19 · replay 13% for the winner
- Navy at UAB UAB 24–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Louisville WAKE 30–27 · replay 38% for the winner
- Minnesota at Washington MINN 27–24 · replay 40% for the winner
- Nebraska at Michigan State NEB 31–13 · replay 48% for the winner
- App State at NC State NCSU 41–31 · replay 53% for the winner