luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026

Air Force at Nevada, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?

Air Force beat Nevada 36–33, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Air Force wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 18 points of win probability to Air Force.

Before kickoff Air Force was a 61% favorite. The game turned on a luck play (OT): J. McFadden made a 35-yard field goal, worth 16 points of win probability to Air Force. The biggest single swing (OT): Nevada fumbled and recovered it.

Final (OT)

Air Force Falcons 36
Nevada Wolf Pack 33

September 26, 2026 · Mackay Stadium · Closing line: Air Force −4.5

Luck index +54 Air Force lucky · −54 Nevada

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Air Force wins 5, Nevada wins 5.

  1. 1 AF 37 NEV 14
  2. 2 AF 16 NEV 0
  3. 3 AF 17 NEV 7
  4. 4 AF 13 NEV 7
  5. 5 AF 20 NEV 17
  6. 6 AF 28 NEV 30
  7. 7 AF 7 NEV 12
  8. 8 AF 28 NEV 38
  9. 9 AF 13 NEV 30
  10. 10 AF 3 NEV 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Air Force wins 46% of them, Nevada 54%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Air Force by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Air Force by 17+9.1%
Air Force by 9–1613.0%
Air Force by 1–822.6%
Level after regulation1.8%
Nevada by 1–824.1%
Nevada by 9–1617.5%
Nevada by 17+11.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.9 points to Air Force: the final margin was Air Force by 3, without the luck Air Force by 1.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. McFadden, 36 yds made · 80% expected
  • C. Cremascoli, 43 yds made · 66% expected
  • C. Cremascoli, 33 yds made · 83% expected
  • J. McFadden, 31 yds made · 87% expected
  • C. Cremascoli, 28 yds made · 89% expected
  • J. McFadden, 35 yds made · 82% expected
  • J. McFadden, 38 yds made · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Air Force 8 for 80 yards, Nevada 4 for 36 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:59 False Start on Nevada, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% AF +1.2 pts
Q1 4:48 Illegal Substitution on Air Force, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% AF +0.4 pts
Q1 4:30 Holding on Air Force, 10 yards +2% NEV +0.8 pts
Q2 14:06 Personal Foul on Air Force, 15 yards +5% NEV +2.2 pts
Q2 10:44 Holding on Air Force, 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% NEV +1.5 pts
Q2 10:06 Personal Foul on Nevada, 15 yards +4% AF +1.6 pts
Q2 2:45 Personal Foul on Nevada, 13 yards +2% AF +0.8 pts
Q3 7:22 Pass Interference on Air Force, 15 yards +6% NEV +1.8 pts
Q3 1:15 Holding on Air Force, 10 yards +7% NEV +1.7 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on Nevada, 3 yards · pre-snap +2% AF +0.5 pts
Q4 7:36 Holding on Air Force, 10 yards +3% NEV +0.6 pts
Q4 0:24 Holding on Air Force, 10 yards +7% NEV +0.4 pts

When it happened

Nevada’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Nevada was ahead in it, below while Air Force was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 4:43 Nevada converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +9% NEV NEV: Punt
2 Q3 1:15 Holding on Air Force, 10 yardsJudgment calls +7% NEV NEV: Punt
3 Q4 8:18 Nevada was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +10% AF NEV: Field goal
4 Q4 0:24 Holding on Air Force, 10 yardsJudgment calls +7% NEV NEV: End of game
5 OT C. Cremascoli made a 28-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him +10% NEV –
6 OT Nevada fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +39% NEV –
7 OT The game turned hereJ. McFadden made a 35-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him +16% AF –
8 2OT J. McFadden made a 38-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him +10% AF –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Air Force 56% · Nevada 44%

Final margin
Air Force by 3
Luck in points
1.9 for Air Force
Luck-adjusted margin
Air Force by 1.1
Replay with same day's form
Air Force 46% · Nevada 54% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · Air Force · Nevada

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