Northern Illinois at Georgia State, Week 4 2026

Final

Northern Illinois Huskies	14
Georgia State Panthers	35

September 26, 2026 · Center Parc Stadium · Closing line: Georgia State −8.5

Replay with same day's form

Luck index +20 Georgia State about even · −20 Northern Illinois

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Northern Illinois wins 2, Georgia State wins 8.

1 NIU 30 GAST 16
2 NIU 34 GAST 30
3 NIU 20 GAST 23
4 NIU 7 GAST 13
5 NIU 10 GAST 20
6 NIU 14 GAST 27
7 NIU 13 GAST 28
8 NIU 14 GAST 34
9 NIU 0 GAST 24
10 NIU 10 GAST 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

Before kickoff

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

Same teams, fresh game

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Northern Illinois wins 20% of them, Georgia State 80%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Georgia State by 21.

Actual: Georgia State by 21 494235282114707142128354249 ← Northern Illinois win by Georgia State win by →

Show as a table

Final margin in the replays	Share of replays
Northern Illinois by 17+	2.7%
Northern Illinois by 9–16	5.4%
Northern Illinois by 1–8	10.3%
Level after regulation	1.9%
Georgia State by 1–8	22.9%
Georgia State by 9–16	18.8%
Georgia State by 17+	38.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Kicks +5% GAST

3rd & 4th downs +5% GAST

All luck +10% GAST

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.4 points to Georgia State: the final margin was Georgia State by 21, without the luck Georgia State by 14.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Northern Illinois 3 for 35 yards, Georgia State 5 for 53 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

When	Flag	Win probability for
Q1 12:42	Holding on Northern Illinois, 10 yards	+2% GAST +1.3 pts
Q1 10:06	Face Mask on Georgia State, 13 yards	+3% NIU +2.1 pts
Q1 6:33	Personal Foul on Georgia State, 15 yards	+2% NIU +1.6 pts
Q2 13:14	Holding on Georgia State, 10 yards	+2% NIU +1.3 pts
Q2 7:05	Holding on Georgia State, 10 yards, wiping out the play	+3% NIU +1.8 pts
Q3 1:53	Face Mask on Northern Illinois, 15 yards	+1% GAST +1.6 pts
Q4 13:44	Holding on Northern Illinois, 10 yards	0% GAST +1.4 pts
Q4 0:21	Illegal Substitution on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% NIU +0.7 pts

When it happened

Georgia State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Georgia State 50% Northern Illinois Q1Q2Q3Q4 1345678

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Georgia State was ahead in it, below while Northern Illinois was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for	Next drive
1	Q1 10:53	J. Schlenhardt missed a 37-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him	+5% GAST	NIU: Touchdown
2	Q1 10:06	Face Mask on Georgia State, 13 yardsJudgment calls	+3% NIU	NIU: Touchdown
3	Q1 9:06	Georgia State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expected	+3% GAST	GAST: Punt
4	Q2 13:14	Holding on Georgia State, 10 yardsJudgment calls	+2% NIU	NIU: Punt
5	Q2 9:07	Northern Illinois converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected	+4% NIU	NIU: Punt
6	Q2 7:05	Holding on Georgia State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls	+3% NIU	NIU: Turnover on downs
7	Q2 2:45	Northern Illinois was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected	+5% GAST	NIU: Punt
8	Q3 11:22	Northern Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected	+3% GAST	NIU: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Northern Illinois 1% · Georgia State 99%

Final margin: Georgia State by 21
Luck in points: 6.4 for Georgia State
Luck-adjusted margin: Georgia State by 14.6
Replay with same day's form: Northern Illinois 20% · Georgia State 80% unchanged: why

How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

3rd & 4th downs 50%Fumble bounces 100%Kicks 100%Judgment calls 0%Pre-snap flags 100%Special teams 0%

What counts Referee calls Momentum after a lucky break none

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

J. Schlenhardt missed a 37-yard field goalQ1 10:53
Face Mask on Georgia State, 13 yardsQ1 10:06
Georgia State converted 3rd & 12Q1 9:06
Holding on Georgia State, 10 yardsQ2 13:14
Northern Illinois converted 3rd & 8Q2 9:07
Holding on Georgia State, 10 yards, wiping out the playQ2 7:05
Northern Illinois was stopped on 4th & 3Q2 2:45
Northern Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 4Q3 11:22

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · Northern Illinois · Georgia State

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